New England
Orlando City
Win Probability
Moneyline
NE
+250
61.9% win prob
EV +58.3%
bet365
Draw
Draw
+315
23% prob
EV -2.9%
Betano
Moneyline
ORL
+101
15.4% win prob
EV -34.5%
Pinnacle
New England travels to Orlando City in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the visiting Revolution. The outcome hinges on whether New England can convert chances into goals; across 50,000 simulations, the model projects a relatively high-scoring result that breaks over the market's total in 59% of runs. On similar win-probability shapes, AccuScore has gone 6-2 across eight comparable matchups. For Orlando City to pull off an upset at home, the Lions would need to suffocate New England's attack and capitalize on limited opportunities, a tall order given how decisively the model leans toward the visitors.
| Book | NE | EV | Draw | EV | ORL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +224 | +50.3% | +314 | -3.0% | +101 | -34.5% |
| Betfair ↗ | +230 | +52.1% | +310 | -3.5% | -110 | -35.3% |
| Betano ↗ | +245 | +56.8% | +315 | -2.9% | -108 | -35.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | +250 | +58.3% | +290 | -5.7% | -111 | -35.4% |
| William Hill ↗ | +225 | +50.6% | +300 | -4.6% | -118 | -35.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 2.5 | -286 | -7.9% | +218 | +9.7% |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -345 | -9.7% | +230 | +12.0% |
| Betano ↗ | 2.5 | -278 | -7.6% | +215 | +9.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | -303 | -8.5% | +240 | +13.9% |
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MLS
AccuScore's simulation makes New England 62% to win, Orlando City 15%, with a 23% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes New England the more likely winner at 62%, with a 23% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Orlando City a 15% chance of beating New England, with 62% for New England and 23% for a draw. Orlando City are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How New England and Orlando City come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
New England have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-L, most recent first).
Orlando City have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 3 (L-D-D-W-D, most recent first).
The teams have met 16 times since 2017: New England 7, Orlando City 5, 4 drawn. The last meeting, on Sep 19, 2026, finished New England 4, Orlando City 2.