Toronto FC
Philadelphia Union
Win Probability
Moneyline
TOR
+465
42.0% win prob
EV +68.7%
Polymarket
Draw
Draw
+448
27% prob
EV +22.6%
Polymarket
Moneyline
PHI
-218
31.5% win prob
EV -27.0%
Kalshi
Toronto travels to face Philadelphia Union in a matchup where the simulation leans slightly toward the visitors. The model projects a tight contest that turns on finishing: Toronto's projected 1.8 goals will need to hold up against Philadelphia's 1.5, with a draw the single most likely outcome at 10% of simulations. AccuScore's record on away-side leans of this probability shape stands at 56% across 769 graded games, though in eight structurally similar matchups the model's side won seven. For Philadelphia to upset that lean, the hosts would need to tighten their attack and force Toronto into a low-scoring result.
| Book | TOR | EV | Draw | EV | PHI | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +456 | +66.8% | +440 | +21.6% | -218 | -27.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +465 | +68.7% | +448 | +22.6% | -224 | -27.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3.5 | -102 | -7.8% | -116 | +3.4% |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -333 | -8.0% | +220 | +6.6% |
| Betano ↗ | 3.5 | -105 | -8.4% | -111 | +4.5% |
| bet365 ↗ | 3.5 | -120 | -10.9% | -120 | +2.6% |
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MLS
AccuScore's simulation makes Toronto FC 42% to win, Philadelphia Union 32%, with a 27% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Toronto FC the more likely winner at 42%, with a 27% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Philadelphia Union a 32% chance of beating Toronto FC, with 42% for Toronto FC and 27% for a draw. Philadelphia Union are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Toronto FC and Philadelphia Union come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Toronto FC have won 2 of their last 5, drawing 1 (L-W-L-W-D, most recent first).
Philadelphia Union have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 2 (L-D-L-D-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 15 times since 2017: Toronto FC 7, Philadelphia Union 4, 4 drawn. The last meeting, on Apr 22, 2026, finished Philadelphia Union 3, Toronto FC 3.