San Jose Earthquakes
Minnesota United
Win Probability
Moneyline
SJ
+286
21.2% win prob
EV -9.1%
Polymarket
Draw
Draw
+341
23% prob
EV -0.4%
Kalshi
Moneyline
MIN
-131
56.3% win prob
EV -0.4%
Kalshi
Minnesota United hosts SJ Earthquakes in a fixture where the simulation clearly favors the home side. The projected total sits above 4.2 goals in nearly 6 of 10 outcomes, a shape on which AccuScore's record stands at 50% over 2,974 comparable games. Minnesota's attack will be central: the model gives the Loons a 60% chance of exceeding 2.5 goals. For San Jose to pull off the upset, it would need to both tighten its away defense and capitalize on limited chances—the simulation projects the Earthquakes at just 1.6 goals. How the visitors contain Minnesota's scoring will determine whether this stays close.
| Book | SJ | EV | Draw | EV | MIN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +280 | -9.7% | +341 | -0.4% | -131 | -0.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +286 | -9.1% | +338 | -0.7% | -134 | -0.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3.5 | +113 | +13.8% | -135 | -15.1% |
| Betano ↗ | 3.5 | +102 | +10.5% | -120 | -13.2% |
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MLS
AccuScore's simulation makes Minnesota United 56% to win, San Jose Earthquakes 21%, with a 23% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Minnesota United the more likely winner at 56%, with a 23% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Minnesota United a 56% chance of beating San Jose Earthquakes, with 21% for San Jose Earthquakes and 23% for a draw. Minnesota United are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How San Jose Earthquakes and Minnesota United come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
San Jose Earthquakes have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 3 (W-D-L-D-D, most recent first).
Minnesota United have won 3 of their last 5, drawing 2 (W-W-D-W-D, most recent first).
The teams have met 17 times since 2017: San Jose Earthquakes 4, Minnesota United 9, 4 drawn. The last meeting, on Aug 22, 2026, finished Minnesota United 5, San Jose Earthquakes 1.