Sporting Kansas City
San Diego FC
Win Probability
Moneyline
SKC
+514
18.8% win prob
EV +7.7%
Pinnacle
Draw
Draw
+459
22% prob
EV +12.3%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
SD
-222
58.9% win prob
EV -7.3%
Betano
Sporting KC travels to face San Diego in a matchup the simulation favors decisively to the home side. Across 50,000 simulations, San Diego's attacking threat projects to outpace the visitors' defensive output, with the gap between the teams' scoring expectations driving the lean. On games shaped like this one—home sides favored in the 55–65% range—AccuScore's model has returned 45% win rate over 4,118 graded matchups. For Sporting KC to upset that projection would require suppressing San Diego's scoring to well below the expected output while creating chances at a rate the simulations assign them only a fifth of the time to achieve overall.
| Book | SKC | EV | Draw | EV | SD | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +514 | +7.7% | +459 | +12.3% | -250 | -8.8% |
| Betfair ↗ | +500 | +6.4% | +450 | +11.3% | -278 | -10.0% |
| Betano ↗ | +480 | +4.5% | +430 | +9.1% | -222 | -7.3% |
| William Hill ↗ | +450 | +1.7% | +400 | +5.8% | -250 | -8.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 4 | +100 | -15.7% | -119 | +11.2% |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -500 | -10.7% | +300 | +19.1% |
| Betano ↗ | 4 | +102 | -15.5% | -122 | +10.6% |
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MLS
AccuScore's simulation makes San Diego FC 59% to win, Sporting Kansas City 19%, with a 22% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes San Diego FC the more likely winner at 59%, with a 22% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives San Diego FC a 59% chance of beating Sporting Kansas City, with 19% for Sporting Kansas City and 22% for a draw. San Diego FC are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Sporting Kansas City and San Diego FC come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Sporting Kansas City have won 0 of their last 5, drawing 1 (D-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
San Diego FC have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 3 (W-L-D-D-D, most recent first).
The teams have met 3 times since 2025: Sporting Kansas City 0, San Diego FC 2, 1 drawn. The last meeting, on Mar 8, 2026, finished San Diego FC 1, Sporting Kansas City 0.