Los Angeles FC
Seattle Sounders
Win Probability
Moneyline
LAFC
+240
52.5% win prob
EV +39.2%
Kalshi
Draw
Draw
+286
24% prob
EV -4.3%
Polymarket
Moneyline
SEA
+101
23.8% win prob
EV -26.1%
Kalshi
Los Angeles FC travels to Seattle Sounders in a matchup where the simulation favors the visitors clearly. Over 50,000 simulations, the model projects Los Angeles FC to control play through the midfield and create more chances than Seattle can defend. The game turns on whether Los Angeles FC can convert those chances into goals—their scoring volume in the projection (2.2 per game) substantially exceeds what Seattle typically allows. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore has backed the away side 61% of the time across 433 similar matchups. For Seattle Sounders to pull off the upset, they would need to compress space in midfield and limit Los Angeles FC's creation rate well below the simulation's expectation.
| Book | LAFC | EV | Draw | EV | SEA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +240 | +39.2% | +273 | -5.8% | +101 | -26.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +222 | +34.5% | +286 | -4.3% | -101 | -26.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3 | -104 | +8.5% | -114 | -11.3% |
| Betano ↗ | 3 | +100 | +9.5% | -118 | -11.8% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | -167 | +6.0% | +130 | -15.6% |
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MLS
AccuScore's simulation makes Los Angeles FC 53% to win, Seattle Sounders 24%, with a 24% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Los Angeles FC the more likely winner at 53%, with a 24% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Seattle Sounders a 24% chance of beating Los Angeles FC, with 53% for Los Angeles FC and 24% for a draw. Seattle Sounders are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Los Angeles FC and Seattle Sounders come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Los Angeles FC have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 3 (L-D-D-W-D, most recent first).
Seattle Sounders have won 0 of their last 5, drawing 2 (L-L-D-D-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 21 times since 2018: Los Angeles FC 10, Seattle Sounders 7, 4 drawn. The last meeting, on May 25, 2026, finished Seattle Sounders 0, Los Angeles FC 1.