Lazio
Napoli
Win Probability
Moneyline
LAZ
+257
4.1% win prob
EV -42.7%
Polymarket
Draw
Draw
+302
13% prob
EV -23.9%
Polymarket
Moneyline
NAP
-105
82.9% win prob
EV +30.9%
Polymarket
Napoli hosts Lazio in a Serie A fixture where the simulation decisively favours the home side. Across 50,000 simulations, Napoli's attacking threat dominates the projection, with the most likely outcome a 2–0 win. AccuScore's model has returned 72% on similar home-heavy matchups across 1,228 past games. For Lazio to upset that lean, the visitors would need to breakthrough a Napoli side the model expects to control the game substantially. A Lazio win remains a decided long shot in this matchup.
| Book | LAZ | EV | Draw | EV | NAP | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +252 | -42.8% | +280 | -25.3% | -107 | +30.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +257 | -42.7% | +302 | -23.9% | -105 | +30.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 2.5 | -120 | +5.7% | +102 | -10.3% |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -133 | +3.2% | -105 | -11.7% |
| Betano ↗ | 2.5 | -118 | +6.1% | +100 | -10.7% |
| bet365 ↗ | 1.5 | -303 | +4.6% | +240 | -19.5% |
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Serie A
AccuScore's simulation makes Napoli 83% to win, Lazio 4%, with a 13% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Napoli the more likely winner at 83%, with a 13% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Napoli a 83% chance of beating Lazio, with 4% for Lazio and 13% for a draw. Napoli are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Lazio and Napoli come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Lazio have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Napoli have won 2 of their last 5, drawing 2 (W-D-L-W-D, most recent first).
The teams have met 23 times since 2015: Lazio 7, Napoli 13, 3 drawn. The last meeting, on Apr 18, 2026, finished Lazio 2, Napoli 0.