Real Madrid
Valencia
Win Probability
Moneyline
RMA
-263
65.5% win prob
EV -4.8%
Betano
Draw
Draw
+442
21% prob
EV +6.4%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
VAL
+690
13.7% win prob
EV +4.1%
Betano
Real Madrid travel to Valencia in La Liga with the simulation favoring the visitors decisively. The model projects a low-scoring affair, with a 2–0 scoreline appearing in 11% of simulations, and success hinges on whether Real Madrid can convert chances while Valencia's attack struggles to generate them. On similar matchups where the away side carried this strong a lean, AccuScore's record stands at 74% over 277 graded games. Valencia would need to tighten its defence and capitalize on limited opportunities to upset the projection; anything less leaves Real Madrid in control.
| Book | RMA | EV | Draw | EV | VAL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -278 | -5.5% | +442 | +6.4% | +639 | +0.6% |
| Betfair ↗ | -303 | -6.4% | +400 | +2.0% | +650 | +1.4% |
| Betano ↗ | -263 | -4.8% | +410 | +3.0% | +690 | +4.1% |
| bet365 ↗ | -303 | -6.4% | +400 | +2.0% | +650 | +1.4% |
| William Hill ↗ | -303 | -6.4% | +400 | +2.0% | +650 | +1.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3.5 | +103 | -12.2% | -125 | +6.4% |
| Betano ↗ | 3.5 | +112 | -10.5% | -133 | +4.9% |
| bet365 ↗ | 3.5 | +110 | -10.8% | -137 | +4.2% |
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La Liga
AccuScore's simulation makes Real Madrid 66% to win, Valencia 14%, with a 21% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Real Madrid the more likely winner at 66%, with a 21% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Valencia a 14% chance of beating Real Madrid, with 66% for Real Madrid and 21% for a draw. Valencia are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Real Madrid and Valencia come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Real Madrid have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
Valencia have won 0 of their last 5, drawing 2 (L-D-D-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 18 times since 2017: Real Madrid 11, Valencia 4, 3 drawn. The last meeting, on Feb 8, 2026, finished Real Madrid 2, Valencia 0.