Schalke 04
Hoffenheim
Win Probability
Moneyline
S04
+430
23.2% win prob
EV +11.5%
Betano
Draw
Draw
+364
25% prob
EV +8.0%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
TSG
-175
51.8% win prob
EV -9.3%
Betano
Hoffenheim hosts Schalke 04 in a Bundesliga fixture where the simulation leans clearly toward the home side. Over 50,000 simulations, the model projects a competitive match that hinges on whether either team can sustain attacking threat; Schalke 04 will need to generate chances on the road against a Hoffenheim side favored to control play. AccuScore's record on games shaped this way—home sides with a modest but genuine lean—stands at 45% win rate across 4,104 graded matchups. An upset would require Schalke 04 to convert their limited scoring opportunities while containing TSG's attack.
| Book | S04 | EV | Draw | EV | TSG | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +413 | +9.5% | +364 | +8.0% | -182 | -9.9% |
| Betano ↗ | +430 | +11.5% | +350 | +6.3% | -175 | -9.3% |
| bet365 ↗ | +425 | +10.9% | +333 | +4.1% | -189 | -10.4% |
| William Hill ↗ | +400 | +8.0% | +360 | +7.5% | -200 | -11.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3.5 | +114 | -6.3% | -139 | +0.8% |
| Betano ↗ | 3.5 | +112 | -6.7% | -133 | +1.8% |
| bet365 ↗ | 3.5 | +110 | -7.1% | -137 | +1.2% |
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Bundesliga
AccuScore's simulation makes Hoffenheim 52% to win, Schalke 04 23%, with a 25% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Hoffenheim the more likely winner at 52%, with a 25% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Hoffenheim a 52% chance of beating Schalke 04, with 23% for Schalke 04 and 25% for a draw. Hoffenheim are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Schalke 04 and Hoffenheim come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Schalke 04 have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 2 (D-L-L-D-W, most recent first).
Hoffenheim have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 16 times since 2014: Schalke 04 5, Hoffenheim 8, 3 drawn. The last meeting, on Apr 9, 2023, finished Schalke 04 0, Hoffenheim 2.