San Jose Sharks
4-3
Ottawa Senators
6-3
Win Probability
The Ottawa Senators host the San Jose Sharks in a matchup where the simulation leans clearly toward the home side. Macklin Celebrini carries San Jose's offensive hopes with a 62% chance of posting more than 0.5 points, while Tim Stutzle leads Ottawa's attack at 57%. The game hinges on depth scoring: beyond those two, San Jose's supporting cast projects weakly, with Tyler Toffoli at just 35% to reach 0.5 points. On similar matchups over 2637 graded games, AccuScore's model has won 59% of the time. For San Jose to pull the upset, it would need production beyond Celebrini and sustained pressure that the projection suggests is unlikely.
| Book | OTT | EV | SAN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -117 | +9.2% | +127 | -8.9% |
NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Ottawa Senators 64% to beat San Jose Sharks (36%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Ottawa Senators the more likely winner at 64%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Ottawa Senators a 64% chance of beating San Jose Sharks, against 36% for San Jose Sharks. Ottawa Senators are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How San Jose Sharks and Ottawa Senators come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
San Jose Sharks have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
Ottawa Senators have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 23 times since 2012: San Jose Sharks 7, Ottawa Senators 16. The last meeting, on Mar 15, 2026, finished San Jose Sharks 4, Ottawa Senators 7.
San Jose Sharks are 276-225 as favourite and 226-398 as underdog, and 235-336 on the road (41% of 571 games, 2011–2026).
Ottawa Senators are 203-149 as favourite and 309-450 as underdog, and 289-272 at home (52% of 561 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | SAN | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 276-225 | 203-149 |
| As underdog | 226-398 | 309-450 |
| At home | 274-297 | 289-272 |
| On the road | 235-336 | 227-334 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →