Espanyol
Athletic Bilbao
Win Probability
Moneyline
ESP
+460
11.6% win prob
EV -17.5%
Betano
Draw
Draw
+314
19% prob
EV -10.3%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
ATH
-161
69.2% win prob
EV +6.1%
Betano
Athletic Bilbao hosts Espanyol in a fixture where the simulation decisively favours the home side. The model's lean turns on Espanyol's inability to generate offence away from home: across 50,000 simulations, the visitors averaged fewer than one goal, while Athletic Bilbao's attack projected to nearly 2.3. AccuScore has won 7 of 8 games shaped like this one. For Espanyol to escape with a result, their defence must weather an onslaught in the first half and catch Athletic Bilbao on the break—a difficult ask on the road.
| Book | ESP | EV | Draw | EV | ATH | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +454 | -17.9% | +314 | -10.3% | -172 | +4.7% |
| Betano ↗ | +460 | -17.5% | +290 | -12.6% | -161 | +6.1% |
| bet365 ↗ | +450 | -18.1% | +275 | -14.0% | -167 | +5.3% |
| William Hill ↗ | +400 | -21.0% | +280 | -13.5% | -161 | +6.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 2.5 | -120 | +7.6% | +102 | -12.5% |
| Betano ↗ | 2.5 | -111 | +9.7% | -105 | -13.7% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | -110 | +10.0% | -110 | -14.5% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 69.2%
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La Liga
AccuScore's simulation makes Athletic Bilbao 69% to win, Espanyol 12%, with a 19% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Athletic Bilbao the more likely winner at 69%, with a 19% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Athletic Bilbao a 69% chance of beating Espanyol, with 12% for Espanyol and 19% for a draw. Athletic Bilbao are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Espanyol and Athletic Bilbao come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Espanyol have won 2 of their last 5, drawing 1 (W-L-L-D-W, most recent first).
Athletic Bilbao have won 2 of their last 5, drawing 2 (W-W-L-D-D, most recent first).
The teams have met 14 times since 2018: Espanyol 5, Athletic Bilbao 4, 5 drawn. The last meeting, on May 13, 2026, finished Athletic Bilbao 0, Espanyol 2.