Dallas Mavericks
0-1
Indiana Pacers
1-0
Win Probability
The Dallas Mavericks travel to face the Indiana Pacers in a matchup where the simulation clearly favours the home side. AccuScore's model projects a low-scoring affair, with the Pacers' defence the decisive factor: Indiana's strength in limiting opponents will likely prove the difference in a game expected to stay tight. Across eight similar situations, the favoured home team won five times. For the Mavericks to pull off the upset, they would need to generate significantly more offensive production than the model expects and force Indiana into uncharacteristic inefficiency.
| Book | IND | EV | DAL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -218 | -3.1% | +181 | +0.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -214 | -2.8% | +185 | +0.7% |
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NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Indiana Pacers 64% to beat Dallas Mavericks (36%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Indiana Pacers the more likely winner at 64%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Indiana Pacers a 64% chance of beating Dallas Mavericks, against 36% for Dallas Mavericks. Indiana Pacers are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Dallas Mavericks and Indiana Pacers come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Dallas Mavericks have won 0 of their last 1 (L, most recent first).
Indiana Pacers have won 1 of their last 1 (W, most recent first).
The teams have met 31 times since 2011: Dallas Mavericks 13, Indiana Pacers 18. The last meeting, on Feb 22, 2026, finished Dallas Mavericks 134, Indiana Pacers 130.
Dallas Mavericks are 440-217 as favourite and 223-419 as underdog, and 308-380 on the road (45% of 688 games, 2010–2026).
Indiana Pacers are 450-223 as favourite and 227-413 as underdog, and 411-276 at home (60% of 687 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | DAL | IND |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 440-217 | 450-223 |
| As underdog | 223-419 | 227-413 |
| At home | 388-291 | 411-276 |
| On the road | 308-380 | 294-397 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →