Memphis Grizzlies
1-0
Golden State Warriors
0-1
Win Probability
The Memphis Grizzlies travel to face the Golden State Warriors in a matchup where the simulation clearly favours Memphis. Across 50,000 simulations, the model projects a tight contest decided by offensive execution: Memphis is built to win if it can sustain perimeter scoring, while Golden State must find enough depth to keep pace. On games shaped like this one—where the away side enters with a modest but real advantage—AccuScore's model has won 50% of the time over 1,328 graded matchups. Golden State would need to turn this into a defensive grind, holding Memphis well below its projected output to escape with a win.
| Book | GS | EV | MEM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -167 | -16.8% | +140 | +20.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -171 | -17.1% | +143 | +21.0% |
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NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Memphis Grizzlies 58% to beat Golden State Warriors (42%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Memphis Grizzlies the more likely winner at 58%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Golden State Warriors a 42% chance of beating Memphis Grizzlies, against 58% for Memphis Grizzlies. Golden State Warriors are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Memphis Grizzlies have won 1 of their last 1 (W, most recent first).
Golden State Warriors have won 0 of their last 1 (L, most recent first).
The teams have met 67 times since 2010: Memphis Grizzlies 30, Golden State Warriors 37. The last meeting, on Feb 25, 2026, finished Golden State Warriors 133, Memphis Grizzlies 112.
Memphis Grizzlies are 437-193 as favourite and 227-435 as underdog, and 293-382 on the road (43% of 675 games, 2010–2026).
Golden State Warriors are 663-235 as favourite and 161-288 as underdog, and 485-223 at home (69% of 708 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | MEM | GS |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 437-193 | 663-235 |
| As underdog | 227-435 | 161-288 |
| At home | 407-272 | 485-223 |
| On the road | 293-382 | 373-335 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →