Lecce
Lazio
Win Probability
Moneyline
LEC
+721
9.4% win prob
EV -11.4%
Pinnacle
Draw
Draw
+416
24% prob
EV +11.9%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
LAZ
-250
66.6% win prob
EV -3.4%
Betano
Lazio hosts Lecce in a fixture where the simulation decisively favours the home side. The model projects a low-scoring contest built on Lazio's defensive control, with the outcome turning on whether Lecce can generate enough attacking threat to stay competitive. AccuScore has graded 3,163 games shaped like this one—where the home team carried roughly 60–70% win probability—and won 54% of those calls. For Lecce to upset this projection, the visitors would need to convert chances at a rate well above what the simulation expects in a trip to the Stadio Olimpico.
| Book | LEC | EV | Draw | EV | LAZ | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +721 | -11.4% | +416 | +11.9% | -286 | -5.1% |
| Betano ↗ | +650 | -14.8% | +400 | +10.0% | -250 | -3.4% |
| bet365 ↗ | +700 | -12.4% | +375 | +7.0% | -278 | -4.7% |
| William Hill ↗ | +650 | -14.8% | +380 | +7.6% | -278 | -4.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3 | -104 | -26.1% | -114 | +21.7% |
| Betano ↗ | 3 | -102 | -25.9% | -115 | +21.4% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | -175 | -23.7% | +138 | +29.2% |
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Serie A
AccuScore's simulation makes Lazio 67% to win, Lecce 9%, with a 24% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Lazio the more likely winner at 67%, with a 24% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Lazio a 67% chance of beating Lecce, with 9% for Lecce and 24% for a draw. Lazio are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Lecce and Lazio come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
The teams have met 9 times since 2020: Lecce 4, Lazio 3, 2 drawn. The last meeting, on Jan 24, 2026, finished Lazio 0, Lecce 0.