Borussia Dortmund
Borussia M'gladbach
Win Probability
Moneyline
BVB
-154
65.9% win prob
EV +4.3%
Betano
Draw
Draw
+330
23% prob
EV -0.6%
Betano
Moneyline
BOR
+365
11.1% win prob
EV -24.2%
Betano
Borussia Dortmund travels to face Borussia M'gladbach in a Bundesliga fixture where the simulation decisively favors the visitors. The model's lean toward BVB rests on their ability to control possession and create chances; across 50,000 simulations, the most common outcome saw them win 1–0, occurring in 17% of runs. On games shaped like this one—where the away side commands a strong probabilistic advantage—AccuScore has won 90% of the time over 52 graded matchups. For M'gladbach to overturn the projection, they would need to impose their will early and force Dortmund into uncharacteristic mistakes on the road.
| Book | BVB | EV | Draw | EV | BOR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano ↗ | -154 | +4.3% | +330 | -0.6% | +365 | -24.2% |
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Bundesliga
AccuScore's simulation makes Borussia Dortmund 66% to win, Borussia M'gladbach 11%, with a 23% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Borussia Dortmund the more likely winner at 66%, with a 23% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Borussia M'gladbach a 11% chance of beating Borussia Dortmund, with 66% for Borussia Dortmund and 23% for a draw. Borussia M'gladbach are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Borussia Dortmund and Borussia M'gladbach come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Borussia Dortmund have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 3 (D-W-D-D-L, most recent first).
Borussia M'gladbach have won 2 of their last 5, drawing 1 (D-W-L-L-W, most recent first).