Buffalo Sabres
4-4
Washington Capitals
5-4
Win Probability
The Washington Capitals host the Buffalo Sabres in a matchup where simulation favours the home side clearly. Tage Thompson projects as Buffalo's most likely contributor with a 47% chance of earning more than 0.5 points, but Washington's depth poses the real test: Dylan Strome and Jordan Kyrou both sit at 40-41% to reach that threshold, giving the Capitals multiple scoring avenues. The game turns on whether Buffalo can generate offence beyond Thompson while suppressing Washington's secondary scorers. AccuScore's model has returned 59% on 2,641 prior games shaped like this one. For the Sabres to pull the upset, they would need to limit chances for Strome and Kyrou while Thompson carries the load.
| Book | WAS | EV | BUF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -126 | +8.8% | -112 | -17.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -134 | +7.3% | +116 | -12.8% |
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Washington Capitals 66% to beat Buffalo Sabres (34%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Washington Capitals the more likely winner at 66%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Washington Capitals a 66% chance of beating Buffalo Sabres, against 34% for Buffalo Sabres. Washington Capitals are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Buffalo Sabres and Washington Capitals come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Buffalo Sabres have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
Washington Capitals have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 47 times since 2011: Buffalo Sabres 17, Washington Capitals 30. The last meeting, on Apr 4, 2026, finished Buffalo Sabres 2, Washington Capitals 6.
Buffalo Sabres are 148-115 as favourite and 302-503 as underdog, and 212-333 on the road (39% of 545 games, 2011–2026).
Washington Capitals are 456-285 as favourite and 196-232 as underdog, and 355-243 at home (59% of 598 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | BUF | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 148-115 | 456-285 |
| As underdog | 302-503 | 196-232 |
| At home | 249-299 | 355-243 |
| On the road | 212-333 | 313-284 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →