NHL
Tampa Bay Lightning
7-2
Utah Mammoth
7-3
Win Probability
This contest between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Utah Mammoth plays out as a coin flip, with the simulation favouring Tampa Bay by the thinnest margin. Nikita Kucherov carries a 70% chance of recording more than 0.5 points, while Clayton Keller sits at 59%, making the Lightning's star the game's most likely point producer. Utah's Mikhail Sergachev projects at 55% to reach that same threshold, keeping the Mammoth competitive. The deciding factor is whether either team's depth can step up, since no player outside the top tier reaches 60% except for Brandon Hagel and Jake Guentzel at 57%. Over 2,687 similar games where AccuScore backed the away side in a near-even matchup, the model won 49%—a reminder that coin flips stay coin flips.
| Book | UTA | EV | TB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -136 | -8.3% | +109 | +4.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -128 | -7.2% | +111 | +4.8% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Lightning 52% to beat Utah Mammoth (48%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Lightning the more likely winner at 52%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Utah Mammoth a 48% chance of beating Tampa Bay Lightning, against 52% for Tampa Bay Lightning. Utah Mammoth are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Tampa Bay Lightning and Utah Mammoth come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Tampa Bay Lightning have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
Utah Mammoth have won 4 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
Tampa Bay Lightning are 574-345 as favourite and 133-161 as underdog, and 317-297 on the road (52% of 614 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | TB | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 574-345 | — |
| As underdog | 133-161 | — |
| At home | 406-216 | — |
| On the road | 317-297 | — |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →