New York Islanders
5-3
Dallas Stars
5-3
Win Probability
The New York Islanders visit the Dallas Stars in a matchup between evenly matched teams. The simulation favors the home side slightly, with the outcome hinging on whether Dallas can convert on its scoring chances—Mikko Rantanen projects at 59% to record more than 0.5 points, while Matthew Schaefer sits at 51%. The Islanders will need their depth to generate offense, as Kyle Palmieri carries just a 28% projection to reach that mark. AccuScore's model has won 49% of similar games over 2,447 attempts, a cautionary note for backing the home side in tight matchups. For New York to escape Dallas, it will need to limit Rantanen's impact and capitalize on Jason Robertson underperforming his 51% projection.
| Book | DAL | EV | NYI | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -175 | -5.7% | +140 | +2.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -179 | -6.0% | +148 | +4.1% |
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Dallas Stars 56% to beat New York Islanders (44%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Dallas Stars the more likely winner at 56%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Dallas Stars a 56% chance of beating New York Islanders, against 44% for New York Islanders. Dallas Stars are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How New York Islanders and Dallas Stars come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
New York Islanders have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
Dallas Stars have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 24 times since 2011: New York Islanders 12, Dallas Stars 12. The last meeting, on Mar 26, 2026, finished Dallas Stars 1, New York Islanders 2.
New York Islanders are 309-226 as favourite and 257-337 as underdog, and 264-314 on the road (46% of 578 games, 2011–2026).
Dallas Stars are 421-287 as favourite and 206-255 as underdog, and 343-255 at home (57% of 598 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | NYI | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 309-226 | 421-287 |
| As underdog | 257-337 | 206-255 |
| At home | 315-263 | 343-255 |
| On the road | 264-314 | 303-298 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →