Montreal Canadiens
4-3
Winnipeg Jets
4-3
Win Probability
When the Montreal Canadiens visit Winnipeg Jets, the simulation leans slightly toward the home side. Nick Suzuki has a 63% chance of recording more than 0.5 points, while Mark Scheifele projects at 56%, but Winnipeg's depth gives it the advantage: Kyle Connor also sits at 56%. The game hinges on whether Montreal can generate secondary scoring beyond Suzuki, with Cole Caufield at just 39%. On similar matchups with these win probabilities, AccuScore has gone 49% over 2447 games. For the Canadiens to pull the upset, their complementary forwards need to step up alongside their captain.
| Book | WIN | EV | MON | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +101 | +3.1% | -131 | -8.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -101 | +2.5% | -119 | -6.6% |
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Winnipeg Jets 53% to beat Montreal Canadiens (47%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Winnipeg Jets the more likely winner at 53%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Winnipeg Jets a 53% chance of beating Montreal Canadiens, against 47% for Montreal Canadiens. Winnipeg Jets are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Montreal Canadiens and Winnipeg Jets come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Montreal Canadiens have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
Winnipeg Jets have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 41 times since 2011: Montreal Canadiens 24, Winnipeg Jets 17. The last meeting, on Feb 4, 2026, finished Montreal Canadiens 5, Winnipeg Jets 1.
Montreal Canadiens are 240-196 as favourite and 279-419 as underdog, and 249-327 on the road (43% of 576 games, 2011–2026).
Winnipeg Jets are 349-229 as favourite and 238-299 as underdog, and 329-244 at home (57% of 573 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | MON | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 240-196 | 349-229 |
| As underdog | 279-419 | 238-299 |
| At home | 281-298 | 329-244 |
| On the road | 249-327 | 270-299 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →