Sunderland
Aston Villa
Win Probability
Moneyline
SUN
16.7% win prob
Draw
Draw
28% prob
Moneyline
AVL
55.5% win prob
Aston Villa hosts Sunderland in a fixture where the simulation clearly favours the home side. Over 50,000 simulations, Villa projects to outscore the visitors by nearly a goal, with a 0–1 scoreline appearing in 17% of outcomes. The match hinges on whether Sunderland can generate enough attacking threat to stay level; the model puts just 36% probability on the combined score exceeding the market's total. On games shaped this way—a moderate home lean in the 50–60% range—AccuScore's picks have returned 45% win rate across 4,122 graded plays. For Sunderland to emerge with a result, they would need to buck that pattern and convert their limited chances into goals.
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano ↗ | 3 | +140 | -19.0% | -167 | +10.0% |
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EPL
AccuScore's simulation makes Aston Villa 56% to win, Sunderland 17%, with a 28% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Aston Villa the more likely winner at 56%, with a 28% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Aston Villa a 56% chance of beating Sunderland, with 17% for Sunderland and 28% for a draw. Aston Villa are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Sunderland and Aston Villa come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Sunderland have won 0 of their last 5, drawing 1 (L-D-L-L-L, most recent first).
Aston Villa have won 2 of their last 5, drawing 2 (D-W-W-D-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 4 times since 2017: Sunderland 0, Aston Villa 3, 1 drawn. The last meeting, on Apr 18, 2026, finished Sunderland 3, Aston Villa 4.