Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Win Probability
Moneyline
VAL
16.6% win prob
Draw
Draw
24% prob
Moneyline
RAY
59.1% win prob
Rayo Vallecano hosts Valencia in a La Liga fixture where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Across 50,000 simulations, the model projects a low-scoring affair centered on whether either team can generate enough attacking threat to push the combined output higher. On games shaped like this one—home favorites with win probabilities in the 50–60% range—AccuScore's historical record stands at 45% over more than 4,100 graded matchups. Valencia's path to an upset runs through breaking down Rayo's resistance in a contest built to reward defensive solidity. For the visitors to escape with a result, they would need to convert chances at a rate the projected scoreline suggests is unlikely.
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano ↗ | 4.5 | +550 | -2.0% | -833 | -2.3% |
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La Liga
AccuScore's simulation makes Rayo Vallecano 59% to win, Valencia 17%, with a 24% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Rayo Vallecano the more likely winner at 59%, with a 24% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Rayo Vallecano a 59% chance of beating Valencia, with 17% for Valencia and 24% for a draw. Rayo Vallecano are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Valencia and Rayo Vallecano come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Valencia have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 2 (W-L-D-D-L, most recent first).
Rayo Vallecano have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 2 (W-L-D-D-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 12 times since 2018: Valencia 2, Rayo Vallecano 3, 7 drawn. The last meeting, on May 14, 2026, finished Rayo Vallecano 1, Valencia 1.