Roma
Parma
Win Probability
Moneyline
ROM
-286
70.6% win prob
EV -2.4%
Betano
Draw
Draw
+426
21% prob
EV +4.4%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
PAR
+800
8.7% win prob
EV -10.9%
bet365
Roma travels to Parma with the simulation strongly favouring the away side. The model projects Roma to control this fixture, with the outcome turning on whether Parma can sustain defensive pressure across ninety minutes—a challenge the numbers suggest the home team will struggle to meet. AccuScore's historical record on away-side leans this decisive stands at 90% over 52 graded games. Parma would need to spring a significant upset to break that pattern, one that resembles outcomes the model has seen only twice across eight comparable matchups in the past.
| Book | ROM | EV | Draw | EV | PAR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -286 | -2.4% | +426 | +4.4% | +723 | -14.2% |
| Betano ↗ | -286 | -2.4% | +420 | +3.8% | +775 | -11.9% |
| bet365 ↗ | -333 | -4.1% | +400 | +1.7% | +800 | -10.9% |
| William Hill ↗ | -333 | -4.1% | +400 | +1.7% | +750 | -13.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3 | -103 | -18.0% | -115 | +13.9% |
| Betano ↗ | 3 | +100 | -17.7% | -118 | +13.3% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | -161 | -15.3% | +130 | +15.8% |
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Serie A
AccuScore's simulation makes Roma 71% to win, Parma 9%, with a 21% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Roma the more likely winner at 71%, with a 21% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Parma a 9% chance of beating Roma, with 71% for Roma and 21% for a draw. Parma are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Roma and Parma come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Roma have won 3 of their last 5, drawing 2 (W-W-D-W-D, most recent first).
Parma have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 1 (W-D-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 11 times since 2014: Roma 9, Parma 1, 1 drawn. The last meeting, on May 10, 2026, finished Roma 3, Parma 2.