Serie A
Torino
Napoli
Win Probability
Moneyline
TOR
+500
15.2% win prob
EV -4.4%
Betano
Draw
Draw
+350
21% prob
EV -3.4%
Betano
Moneyline
NAP
-192
64.1% win prob
EV -1.3%
Betano
Napoli hosts Torino in a Serie A fixture where the simulation clearly favors the home side. The model's lean turns on whether either team can generate enough attacking threat to push the combined score higher—it projects Torino at 1.3 goals and Napoli at 1.9. AccuScore's record on games shaped this way, backing the over in 60–70% probability spots, sits at 50% win rate across nearly 3,000 attempts. For Torino's upset bid to land, the visitors would need to crack Napoli's approach and manufacture chances they rarely do on the road; most simulations ended level at 1–1.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Napoli 64% to win, Torino 15%, with a 21% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Napoli the more likely winner at 64%, with a 21% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Napoli a 64% chance of beating Torino, with 15% for Torino and 21% for a draw. Napoli are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Torino and Napoli come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Torino have won 3 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
Napoli have won 2 of their last 5, drawing 1 (L-W-D-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 24 times since 2014: Torino 3, Napoli 16, 5 drawn. The last meeting, on Mar 6, 2026, finished Torino 1, Napoli 2.