La Liga • Sat, Nov 21, 20:00
Real Madrid hosts Celta de Vigo in a fixture where the simulation decisively favours the home side. Madrid's attacking threat will be decisive: across 50,000 simulations, the model projects enough quality in their finishing to build a substantial advantage. The game turns on whether Celta can generate meaningful chances; if they remain limited in their attacking play, Madrid's superiority compounds quickly.
See the model's win probabilities, projected and most-likely score, the positive-EV edge with its price, the record behind it, and the full write-up — for this game and every game.
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La Liga
AccuScore's simulation makes Real Madrid 82% to win, Celta de Vigo 4%, with a 14% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Real Madrid the more likely winner at 82%, with a 14% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Real Madrid a 82% chance of beating Celta de Vigo, with 4% for Celta de Vigo and 14% for a draw. Real Madrid are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Celta de Vigo and Real Madrid come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Celta de Vigo have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 2 (L-D-W-D-L, most recent first).
Real Madrid have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 19 times since 2017: Celta de Vigo 1, Real Madrid 16, 2 drawn. The last meeting, on Mar 6, 2026, finished Real Madrid 2, Celta de Vigo 1.