Venezia
Juventus
Win Probability
Moneyline
VEN
+714
14.8% win prob
EV +10.2%
Pinnacle
Draw
Draw
+437
24% prob
EV +13.6%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
JUV
-256
61.5% win prob
EV -7.2%
Betano
Juventus hosts Venezia in a Serie A matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. The model projects a low-scoring affair, with Juventus winning most timelines, though Venezia's travel disadvantage compounds an already difficult task. AccuScore's historical record on games shaped like this—where the home side carries a decisive lean—stands at 54% over 3,163 similar matchups, suggesting the favourite doesn't always convert. For Venezia to upset this projection, they would need to buck the home-field advantage and generate enough attacking thrust to breach a Juventus side the model expects to control possession and create the clearer chances.
| Book | VEN | EV | Draw | EV | JUV | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +714 | +10.2% | +437 | +13.6% | -294 | -8.8% |
| Betano ↗ | +670 | +7.0% | +400 | +9.3% | -256 | -7.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | +700 | +9.2% | +375 | +6.3% | -303 | -9.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3 | +104 | -11.2% | -123 | +7.0% |
| Betano ↗ | 3 | +100 | -11.8% | -118 | +7.9% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | -161 | -10.2% | +130 | +8.5% |
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Serie A
AccuScore's simulation makes Juventus 62% to win, Venezia 15%, with a 24% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Juventus the more likely winner at 62%, with a 24% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Juventus a 62% chance of beating Venezia, with 15% for Venezia and 24% for a draw. Juventus are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Venezia and Juventus come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Venezia have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
Juventus have won 2 of their last 5, drawing 1 (W-L-W-L-D, most recent first).
The teams have met 4 times since 2021: Venezia 0, Juventus 2, 2 drawn. The last meeting, on May 25, 2025, finished Juventus 3, Venezia 2.