Villarreal
Barcelona
Win Probability
Moneyline
VIL
+922
5.2% win prob
EV -23.4%
Pinnacle
Draw
Draw
+550
10% prob
EV -18.5%
bet365
Moneyline
BAR
-417
85.1% win prob
EV +2.8%
Pinnacle
Barcelona hosts Villarreal in a fixture where the simulation decisively favours the home side. The model projects a Barcelona victory built on attacking dominance, with the key question whether Villarreal can limit the damage on the road. When AccuScore has leaned this strongly toward one team across 1,968 graded games, that side won 75% of the time. A low-scoring result would require Villarreal to frustrate Barcelona's attack substantially—a significant upset given the simulation's conviction. The under has returned 49% across comparable totals, offering no edge in either direction.
| Book | VIL | EV | Draw | EV | BAR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +922 | -23.4% | +543 | -18.8% | -417 | +2.8% |
| bet365 ↗ | +750 | -27.9% | +550 | -18.5% | -455 | +1.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 4 | -114 | -0.5% | -108 | -3.6% |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -500 | -2.1% | +300 | -9.8% |
| Betano ↗ | 4 | -110 | +0.2% | -108 | -3.6% |
| bet365 ↗ | 3.5 | -161 | +0.1% | +130 | -6.1% |
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La Liga
AccuScore's simulation makes Barcelona 85% to win, Villarreal 5%, with a 10% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Barcelona the more likely winner at 85%, with a 10% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Barcelona a 85% chance of beating Villarreal, with 5% for Villarreal and 10% for a draw. Barcelona are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Villarreal and Barcelona come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Villarreal have won 2 of their last 5, drawing 1 (W-L-W-D-L, most recent first).
Barcelona have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 24 times since 2014: Villarreal 3, Barcelona 18, 3 drawn. The last meeting, on Feb 28, 2026, finished Villarreal 1, Barcelona 4.