Detroit Red Wings
4-3
Edmonton Oilers
8-1
Win Probability
Edmonton Oilers host Detroit Red Wings in a matchup the model clearly favours to the home side. Connor McDavid projects as an 84% chance to record more than 0.5 points, while Leon Draisaitl sits at 74%—a stark contrast to Detroit Red Wings' leading scorer Alex DeBrincat at 58%. The game turns on whether Edmonton's elite offensive talent can maintain that advantage; AccuScore has won 59% of similar home-lean matchups across 2,643 graded games. For Detroit to pull the upset, their depth would need to outpace a simulation that projects Edmonton scoring at a notably higher rate.
| Book | EDM | EV | DET | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -182 | +0.6% | +146 | -7.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -179 | +0.9% | +155 | -5.8% |
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Edmonton Oilers 65% to beat Detroit Red Wings (35%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Edmonton Oilers the more likely winner at 65%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Edmonton Oilers a 65% chance of beating Detroit Red Wings, against 35% for Detroit Red Wings. Edmonton Oilers are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Detroit Red Wings and Edmonton Oilers come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Detroit Red Wings have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
Edmonton Oilers have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 29 times since 2011: Detroit Red Wings 16, Edmonton Oilers 13. The last meeting, on Dec 11, 2025, finished Detroit Red Wings 1, Edmonton Oilers 4.
Detroit Red Wings are 206-171 as favourite and 263-439 as underdog, and 213-335 on the road (39% of 548 games, 2011–2026).
Edmonton Oilers are 352-255 as favourite and 230-323 as underdog, and 311-275 at home (53% of 586 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | DET | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 206-171 | 352-255 |
| As underdog | 263-439 | 230-323 |
| At home | 268-283 | 311-275 |
| On the road | 213-335 | 280-316 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →