Genoa
Sassuolo
Win Probability
Moneyline
GEN
24.1% win prob
Draw
Draw
27% prob
Moneyline
SAS
49.2% win prob
Genoa travels to Sassuolo in a Serie A fixture where the simulation clearly favours the hosts. The model projects a low-scoring affair, with Sassuolo edging out the visitor in expected output. Over similar matchups shaped to these win probabilities, AccuScore's record stands at 5 wins across 8 comparable games. For Genoa to pull off an upset on the road, they would need to generate chances at a rate the projection does not anticipate, since the simulation sees this as a controlled home performance.
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano ↗ | 2.5 | -111 | -5.4% | — | — |
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Serie A
AccuScore's simulation makes Sassuolo 49% to win, Genoa 24%, with a 27% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Sassuolo the more likely winner at 49%, with a 27% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Sassuolo a 49% chance of beating Genoa, with 24% for Genoa and 27% for a draw. Sassuolo are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Genoa and Sassuolo come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Genoa have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
Sassuolo have won 0 of their last 5, drawing 1 (L-L-L-L-D, most recent first).
The teams have met 19 times since 2015: Genoa 8, Sassuolo 6, 5 drawn. The last meeting, on Apr 12, 2026, finished Sassuolo 1, Genoa 2.