Manchester United
Liverpool
Win Probability
Moneyline
MUN
+333
22.4% win prob
EV -1.5%
bet365
Draw
Draw
+300
26% prob
EV +1.8%
Betfair
Moneyline
LIV
-125
51.7% win prob
EV -3.5%
bet365
Liverpool hosts Manchester United in a fixture where the simulation leans clearly toward the home side. Over 50,000 runs, the model projects a narrow Liverpool advantage, with the most likely outcome a 1–1 draw occurring in 11% of simulations. On games shaped this way—home favourites in the 50–60% range—AccuScore has won 6 of 8 comparable matchups across different teams. The contest hinges on whether either side can convert chances into goals; the combined score exceeds the market total in 53% of simulations, suggesting both defences will have moments. Manchester United would need to steal a road result against a Liverpool side the model slightly favours to keep this tight.
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EPL
AccuScore's simulation makes Liverpool 52% to win, Manchester United 22%, with a 26% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Liverpool the more likely winner at 52%, with a 26% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Liverpool a 52% chance of beating Manchester United, with 22% for Manchester United and 26% for a draw. Liverpool are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Manchester United and Liverpool come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Manchester United have won 0 of their last 5, drawing 3 (L-L-D-D-D, most recent first).
Liverpool have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 18 times since 2017: Manchester United 4, Liverpool 7, 7 drawn. The last meeting, on May 2, 2026, finished Liverpool 2, Manchester United 3.