Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen
Win Probability
Moneyline
HAM
+345
23.1% win prob
EV +1.4%
Betano
Draw
Draw
+333
27% prob
EV +8.2%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
SVW
-139
50.0% win prob
EV -7.0%
Betano
Werder Bremen hosts Hamburger SV in a Bundesliga fixture where the simulation clearly favours the home side. The model projects a tight, low-scoring contest, with Bremen's attacking threat outweighing the visitor's despite both sides struggling to break through consistently. On games shaped like this one—where the away team sits around 23% to win—AccuScore's record stands at 46% over 1286 graded contests. For Hamburger SV to upset the projection, they would need to tighten their defence and convert chances at a rate well above what the simulations suggest; Bremen's comfort at home makes that a steep climb.
| Book | HAM | EV | Draw | EV | SVW | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +343 | +1.2% | +333 | +8.2% | -147 | -8.0% |
| Betano ↗ | +345 | +1.4% | +305 | +4.5% | -139 | -7.0% |
| bet365 ↗ | +333 | +0.0% | +300 | +3.8% | -149 | -8.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3 | -120 | -10.8% | +101 | +8.5% |
| Betano ↗ | 3 | -118 | -10.6% | +100 | +8.3% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | -200 | -10.4% | +162 | +11.8% |
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Bundesliga
AccuScore's simulation makes Werder Bremen 50% to win, Hamburger SV 23%, with a 27% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Werder Bremen the more likely winner at 50%, with a 27% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Werder Bremen a 50% chance of beating Hamburger SV, with 23% for Hamburger SV and 27% for a draw. Werder Bremen are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Hamburger SV and Werder Bremen come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Hamburger SV have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
Werder Bremen have won 2 of their last 5, drawing 2 (W-W-D-D-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 4 times since 2017: Hamburger SV 1, Werder Bremen 2, 1 drawn. The last meeting, on Apr 18, 2026, finished Hamburger SV 1, Werder Bremen 3.