NBA
San Antonio Spurs
0-1
Dallas Mavericks
0-1
Win Probability
The San Antonio Spurs travel to Dallas to face the Mavericks in a matchup where AccuScore's simulation decisively favours the visitors. San Antonio's offensive depth will be the deciding factor: the model projects the Spurs to outscore Dallas by nearly nine points, driven by production across their roster. On comparable games shaped this way—where the away team carries a strong lean—AccuScore has won 69% of the time over 461 graded decisions. For the Mavericks to pull the upset at home, they would need to contain San Antonio's balanced attack and stay within striking distance late, a tall order given how the 50,000 simulations played out.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | DAL | EV | SA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +331 | +5.8% | -381 | -3.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +319 | +4.3% | -373 | -3.0% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes San Antonio Spurs 74% to beat Dallas Mavericks (26%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes San Antonio Spurs the more likely winner at 74%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Dallas Mavericks a 26% chance of beating San Antonio Spurs, against 74% for San Antonio Spurs. Dallas Mavericks are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
San Antonio Spurs have won 0 of their last 1 (L, most recent first).
Dallas Mavericks have won 0 of their last 1 (L, most recent first).
The teams have met 70 times since 2010: San Antonio Spurs 41, Dallas Mavericks 29. The last meeting, on Apr 10, 2026, finished Dallas Mavericks 120, San Antonio Spurs 139.
San Antonio Spurs are 635-212 as favourite and 162-312 as underdog, and 348-347 on the road (50% of 695 games, 2010–2026).
Dallas Mavericks are 440-217 as favourite and 223-419 as underdog, and 388-291 at home (57% of 679 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | SA | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 635-212 | 440-217 |
| As underdog | 162-312 | 223-419 |
| At home | 464-224 | 388-291 |
| On the road | 348-347 | 308-380 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →