New Orleans Pelicans
0-1
Denver Nuggets
0-1
Win Probability
The Denver Nuggets host the New Orleans Pelicans in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. Denver's offensive firepower should prove decisive: the model projects the Nuggets to eclipse 120 points, with their scoring attack outpacing New Orleans by roughly ten. The visiting Pelicans face a steep climb on the road, and their path to an upset runs through slowing Denver's pace and controlling the glass. AccuScore's model has backed the home team in games shaped like this one at a 69% clip across 1,273 graded contests. For New Orleans to pull the upset, they would need to reverse that home-court disadvantage through defence and limit Denver's efficiency in transition.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | DEN | EV | NO | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -490 | -2.3% | +398 | +1.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -480 | -2.2% | +406 | +2.6% |
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NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Denver Nuggets 79% to beat New Orleans Pelicans (21%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Denver Nuggets the more likely winner at 79%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Denver Nuggets a 79% chance of beating New Orleans Pelicans, against 21% for New Orleans Pelicans. Denver Nuggets are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How New Orleans Pelicans and Denver Nuggets come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
New Orleans Pelicans have won 0 of their last 1 (L, most recent first).
Denver Nuggets have won 0 of their last 1 (L, most recent first).
The teams have met 56 times since 2010: New Orleans Pelicans 22, Denver Nuggets 34. The last meeting, on Jan 13, 2026, finished Denver Nuggets 122, New Orleans Pelicans 116.
New Orleans Pelicans are 285-196 as favourite and 248-516 as underdog, and 236-418 on the road (36% of 654 games, 2010–2026).
Denver Nuggets are 546-250 as favourite and 206-320 as underdog, and 468-227 at home (67% of 695 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | NO | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 285-196 | 546-250 |
| As underdog | 248-516 | 206-320 |
| At home | 329-327 | 468-227 |
| On the road | 236-418 | 327-367 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →