Milwaukee Brewers
103-59
Tampa Bay Rays
98-64
Win Probability
The Milwaukee Brewers travel to face the Tampa Bay Rays in a matchup where the simulation leans clearly toward the home side. Jacob Misiorowski projects to strike out 10.0, a mark that could define the Brewers' pitching approach, while Victor Mesa Jr. carries a 35% chance to go deep and 50% to record a hit. The game turns on whether Tampa Bay can manufacture runs against Milwaukee's arm talent—the model sees this script favoring the Rays 59% to 41%. AccuScore's record on similar home-side leans across 6,353 graded games stands at 49%, a cautionary note on chalk plays. For Milwaukee to pull the upset, Mesa Jr. would need to miss his spots at the plate and the visiting offense would have to impose itself early.
| Book | TB | EV | MIL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -126 | +2.9% | +101 | -8.8% |
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MLB
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Rays 59% to beat Milwaukee Brewers (41%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Rays the more likely winner at 59%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Tampa Bay Rays a 59% chance of beating Milwaukee Brewers, against 41% for Milwaukee Brewers. Tampa Bay Rays are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Milwaukee Brewers have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Tampa Bay Rays have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 23 times since 2011: Milwaukee Brewers 13, Tampa Bay Rays 10. The last meeting, on Oct 23, 2026, finished Tampa Bay Rays 2, Milwaukee Brewers 3.
Milwaukee Brewers are 763-555 as favourite and 502-594 as underdog, and 594-625 on the road (49% of 1219 games, 2010–2026).
Tampa Bay Rays are 819-639 as favourite and 470-503 as underdog, and 679-555 at home (55% of 1234 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | MIL | TB |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 763-555 | 819-639 |
| As underdog | 502-594 | 470-503 |
| At home | 691-547 | 679-555 |
| On the road | 594-625 | 624-603 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the MLB odds have moved →