Montreal Canadiens
5-3
St. Louis Blues
5-4
Win Probability
The St. Louis Blues host the Montreal Canadiens in a matchup where the simulation clearly favors the home side. Dylan Holloway projects as the most likely contributor on either roster, with a 60% chance of recording more than 0.5 points, while Lane Hutson sits at 54%. The game hinges on whether Montreal can generate enough offense to overcome St. Louis in a contest expected to fall just short of the over—only 47% probability there—suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair. AccuScore's model has gone 59% over 2,644 similar home-side leans, a modest edge that reflects real but limited predictability in games shaped this way. Montreal would need to beat the projected scoring pace substantially to pull off the upset.
| Book | STL | EV | MON | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -116 | +8.1% | -112 | -14.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -114 | +8.6% | -105 | -13.3% |
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes St. Louis Blues 62% to beat Montreal Canadiens (38%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes St. Louis Blues the more likely winner at 62%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives St. Louis Blues a 62% chance of beating Montreal Canadiens, against 38% for Montreal Canadiens. St. Louis Blues are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Montreal Canadiens and St. Louis Blues come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Montreal Canadiens have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
St. Louis Blues have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 23 times since 2012: Montreal Canadiens 10, St. Louis Blues 13. The last meeting, on Jan 3, 2026, finished Montreal Canadiens 0, St. Louis Blues 2.
Montreal Canadiens are 241-196 as favourite and 279-419 as underdog, and 250-327 on the road (43% of 577 games, 2011–2026).
St. Louis Blues are 383-272 as favourite and 249-260 as underdog, and 337-253 at home (57% of 590 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | MON | STL |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 241-196 | 383-272 |
| As underdog | 279-419 | 249-260 |
| At home | 281-298 | 337-253 |
| On the road | 250-327 | 304-291 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →