Ottawa Senators
7-4
Vegas Golden Knights
8-4
Win Probability
The Ottawa Senators visit Vegas Golden Knights in a matchup where the home side's simulation lean is clear. Jack Eichel projects as the likeliest impact player, carrying a 71% chance of exceeding 0.5 points, while Tim Stutzle sits at 55% on the visitor side. The game hinges on whether Ottawa can generate secondary scoring beyond its top line; Mark Stone at 59% and Drake Batherson at just 37% illustrate Vegas's depth advantage. AccuScore's record on games shaped like this one—backing the home team with a similar win probability—stands at 59% across 2644 graded contests. For the Senators to steal this one, Stutzle and Sanderson would need to combine for production while the Vegas supporting cast underperforms.
| Book | VGK | EV | OTT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -175 | -2.5% | +134 | -3.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -164 | -1.3% | +143 | -2.0% |
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Vegas Golden Knights 61% to beat Ottawa Senators (40%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Vegas Golden Knights the more likely winner at 61%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Vegas Golden Knights a 61% chance of beating Ottawa Senators, against 40% for Ottawa Senators. Vegas Golden Knights are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Ottawa Senators and Vegas Golden Knights come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Ottawa Senators have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
Vegas Golden Knights have won 3 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 16 times since 2017: Ottawa Senators 4, Vegas Golden Knights 12. The last meeting, on Jan 25, 2026, finished Vegas Golden Knights 1, Ottawa Senators 7.
Ottawa Senators are 203-150 as favourite and 309-450 as underdog, and 227-334 on the road (40% of 561 games, 2011–2026).
Vegas Golden Knights are 371-226 as favourite and 107-119 as underdog, and 266-158 at home (63% of 424 games, 2017–2026).
| Record | OTT | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 203-150 | 371-226 |
| As underdog | 309-450 | 107-119 |
| At home | 290-273 | 266-158 |
| On the road | 227-334 | 220-196 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →