Miami Heat
0-2
Charlotte Hornets
1-1
Win Probability
The Miami Heat travel to Charlotte to face the Hornets in a tight contest where the simulation leans slightly toward the visitors. AccuScore's model has run 50,000 simulations and projects a low-scoring affair decided by perimeter execution and transition defense. On similar game shapes across eight prior matchups, the model's side won five times, suggesting modest predictive power in this range. Whether Miami's offense can sustain rhythm without dominant interior scoring will determine if Charlotte can steal a close game at home.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H MIA ML
MIA -133
-2.5% EV
52.2% leads · push 3.5%
bet365 ↗
1H CHA ML
CHA +123
+1.1% EV
44.3% leads · push 3.5%
Pinnacle ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
MIA -1.5 -110
-3.4% EV
48.9% covers
bet365 ↗
1H Spread
CHA +1.5 -108
-0.8% EV
51.1% covers
Betano ↗
1H Total
O 118.5 -109
-8.9% EV
42.8% over
Pinnacle ↗
1H Total
U 118.5 -109
+4.8% EV
57.2% under
Pinnacle ↗
| Book | Line | CHA | EV | MIA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +3 | -101 | -0.4% | -111 | -2.3% |
| Betfair ↗ | +3.5 | -110 | -1.0% | -110 | -3.5% |
| Betano ↗ | +3.5 | -110 | -1.0% | -111 | -3.7% |
| bet365 ↗ | +3 | -108 | -1.9% | -120 | -3.9% |
| novig | +3.5 | -102 | +0.8% | +100 | -1.3% |
| Book | CHA | EV | MIA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +125 | -0.4% | -139 | -1.9% |
| Betfair ↗ | +125 | -0.4% | -161 | -4.7% |
| Betano ↗ | +125 | -0.4% | -167 | -5.3% |
| bet365 ↗ | +125 | -0.4% | -152 | -3.7% |
| William Hill ↗ | +120 | -1.5% | -149 | -3.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 229 | -112 | -0.2% | -102 | -3.0% |
| Betfair ↗ | 230.5 | -110 | -3.0% | -110 | -1.5% |
| Betano ↗ | 229.5 | -114 | -1.9% | -108 | -3.0% |
| bet365 ↗ | 228.5 | -135 | -3.1% | +100 | -3.9% |
| William Hill ↗ | 229.5 | -118 | -2.7% | -118 | -4.9% |
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NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Miami Heat 56% to beat Charlotte Hornets (44%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Miami Heat the more likely winner at 56%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Charlotte Hornets a 44% chance of beating Miami Heat, against 56% for Miami Heat. Charlotte Hornets are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Miami Heat and Charlotte Hornets come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Miami Heat have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).
Charlotte Hornets have won 1 of their last 2 (L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 72 times since 2010: Miami Heat 53, Charlotte Hornets 19. The last meeting, on Apr 14, 2026, finished Miami Heat 126, Charlotte Hornets 127.
Miami Heat are 587-271 as favourite and 207-299 as underdog, and 363-353 on the road (51% of 716 games, 2010–2026).
Charlotte Hornets are 247-133 as favourite and 244-593 as underdog, and 293-347 at home (46% of 640 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | MIA | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 587-271 | 247-133 |
| As underdog | 207-299 | 244-593 |
| At home | 469-244 | 293-347 |
| On the road | 363-353 | 218-427 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →