Milwaukee Bucks
0-2
Philadelphia 76ers
2-0
Win Probability
The Philadelphia 76ers host a Milwaukee Bucks team that has stumbled to an 0-2 start, and the simulation decisively favours the home side. Philadelphia's superior depth shows in the model's projection, with the gap turning on whether Milwaukee can generate enough offensive punch: the Bucks are projected to fall short of 111 points, a threshold they must clear to stay competitive. On games shaped like this one—where the model leans this heavily toward the home team—AccuScore's record stands at 80% across 820 graded decisions. For Milwaukee to pull off an upset, it would need one of its stars to catch fire well beyond projection, or for Philadelphia to stumble into an uncharacteristically sluggish night on its home floor.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H MIL ML
MIL +319
+2.8% EV
24.5% leads · push 2.9%
Pinnacle ↗
1H PHI ML
PHI -345
-1.7% EV
72.6% leads · push 2.9%
Betfair ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
| Book | Line | PHI | EV | MIL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -13 | +101 | -5.2% | -114 | +2.1% |
| Betfair ↗ | -12.5 | -110 | -6.1% | -110 | +1.5% |
| Betano ↗ | -12.5 | -111 | -6.3% | -110 | +1.5% |
| bet365 ↗ | -12.5 | -111 | -6.3% | -110 | +1.5% |
| novig | -12.5 | -104 | -4.9% | +102 | +4.5% |
| Book | PHI | EV | MIL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -609 | -2.2% | +490 | +2.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -597 | -2.1% | +500 | +3.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 235 | -108 | -6.1% | -106 | +2.9% |
| Betfair ↗ | 234.5 | -114 | -6.4% | -108 | +1.5% |
| Betano ↗ | 234.5 | -114 | -6.4% | -108 | +1.5% |
| bet365 ↗ | 234.5 | -111 | -5.8% | -110 | +1.1% |
| William Hill ↗ | 234.5 | -118 | -7.0% | -118 | -0.6% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 54.0%
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Philadelphia 76ers 82% to beat Milwaukee Bucks (18%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Philadelphia 76ers the more likely winner at 82%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Philadelphia 76ers a 82% chance of beating Milwaukee Bucks, against 18% for Milwaukee Bucks. Philadelphia 76ers are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Milwaukee Bucks have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).
Philadelphia 76ers have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 56 times since 2010: Milwaukee Bucks 37, Philadelphia 76ers 19. The last meeting, on Apr 12, 2026, finished Milwaukee Bucks 106, Philadelphia 76ers 126.
Milwaukee Bucks are 511-251 as favourite and 172-370 as underdog, and 306-377 on the road (45% of 683 games, 2010–2026).
Philadelphia 76ers are 407-188 as favourite and 200-512 as underdog, and 376-308 at home (55% of 684 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | MIL | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 511-251 | 407-188 |
| As underdog | 172-370 | 200-512 |
| At home | 418-265 | 376-308 |
| On the road | 306-377 | 274-412 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →