Toronto Maple Leafs
7-4
Seattle Kraken
7-4
Win Probability
Toronto Maple Leafs visit Seattle Kraken in a matchup where the simulation favours the visitors slightly. Auston Matthews and William Nylander each project a 65% chance of exceeding 0.5 points, suggesting Toronto's top tier will need to drive play for the away side to pull through. The game turns on whether Seattle can generate scoring depth; Brandon Montour sits at 48% to reach 0.5 points, but production below him drops sharply. On similar win-probability shapes across eight prior games, the model's side won exactly half. For the Kraken to upset this lean, their secondary options would need to outpace projections and tighten what shapes as a tight contest.
| Book | SEA | EV | TOR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -107 | -6.5% | -112 | +2.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -105 | -6.1% | -109 | +2.7% |
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Toronto Maple Leafs 55% to beat Seattle Kraken (45%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Toronto Maple Leafs the more likely winner at 55%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Seattle Kraken a 45% chance of beating Toronto Maple Leafs, against 55% for Toronto Maple Leafs. Seattle Kraken are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Toronto Maple Leafs and Seattle Kraken come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Toronto Maple Leafs have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-L, most recent first).
Seattle Kraken have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 10 times since 2022: Toronto Maple Leafs 7, Seattle Kraken 3. The last meeting, on Jan 29, 2026, finished Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Seattle Kraken 5.
Toronto Maple Leafs are 387-278 as favourite and 196-266 as underdog, and 276-298 on the road (48% of 574 games, 2011–2026).
Seattle Kraken are 71-55 as favourite and 115-187 as underdog, and 97-119 at home (45% of 216 games, 2021–2026).
| Record | TOR | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 387-278 | 71-55 |
| As underdog | 196-266 | 115-187 |
| At home | 320-260 | 97-119 |
| On the road | 276-298 | 94-126 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →