Milwaukee Brewers vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction (Oct 28): Milwaukee Brewers 55%

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MLB•Thu, Oct 29 • 12:00 AM

MIL

Milwaukee Brewers

103-59

Tampa Bay Rays

98-64

Win Probability

Moneyline

MIL

55.0% win prob

Moneyline

45.0% win prob

Analysis

The Milwaukee Brewers travel to face the Tampa Bay Rays in a matchup where the simulation slightly favors the visiting side. Jacob Misiorowski projects to strike out 10.0 batters, a figure that could shape the Brewers' pitching strategy across this contest. Victor Mesa Jr. enters with a 49% hit probability and a 33% chance to go deep, making him central to whether Tampa Bay's offense can keep pace. The game likely turns on whether the Rays can generate consistent contact against Milwaukee's projected run output. On games shaped this way, AccuScore's model has won 4 of 8 comparable matchups—a coin flip that underscores how tightly matched these teams truly are. A Tampa Bay victory would require the Rays to limit damage when their bats struggle early.

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Run Line (-1.5/+1.5)MIL -1.5

12.51.25-10

MIL Cover

38.0%

no odds at this line

TB Cover

62.0%

no odds at this line

Player Props

TB MIL

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AccuScore's simulation makes Milwaukee Brewers 55% to beat Tampa Bay Rays (45%).

Projection updated Oct 25, 4:55 PM ET

Who will win Milwaukee Brewers vs Tampa Bay Rays?

AccuScore's simulation makes Milwaukee Brewers the more likely winner at 55%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.

Will Tampa Bay Rays beat Milwaukee Brewers?

AccuScore's simulation gives Tampa Bay Rays a 45% chance of beating Milwaukee Brewers, against 55% for Milwaukee Brewers. Tampa Bay Rays are at home but the underdog on these numbers.

Form, head-to-head and betting trends

How Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.

Recent form

Milwaukee BrewersWWWWW

Oct 24vs Tampa Bay RaysW 5–4
Oct 23vs Tampa Bay RaysW 3–2
Oct 15at Los Angeles DodgersW 6–4
Oct 14at Los Angeles DodgersW 6–2
Oct 12vs Los Angeles DodgersW 7–4

Milwaukee Brewers have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).

Tampa Bay RaysLLWWL

Oct 24at Milwaukee BrewersL 4–5
Oct 23at Milwaukee BrewersL 2–3
Oct 19vs Cleveland GuardiansW 7–3
Oct 17at Cleveland GuardiansW 7–3
Oct 15at Cleveland GuardiansL 2–3

Tampa Bay Rays have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-L, most recent first).

Head-to-head

The teams have met 24 times since 2011: Milwaukee Brewers 14, Tampa Bay Rays 10. The last meeting, on Oct 24, 2026, finished Tampa Bay Rays 4, Milwaukee Brewers 5.

Oct 24, 2026TB 4 – 5 MIL
Oct 23, 2026TB 2 – 3 MIL
Apr 1, 2026TB 8 – 2 MIL
Mar 31, 2026TB 6 – 2 MIL
Mar 30, 2026TB 2 – 3 MIL

Every Milwaukee Brewers vs Tampa Bay Rays meeting →

Betting trends

Milwaukee Brewers are 764-555 as favourite and 502-594 as underdog, and 594-625 on the road (49% of 1219 games, 2010–2026).

Tampa Bay Rays are 819-639 as favourite and 470-504 as underdog, and 679-555 at home (55% of 1234 games, 2010–2026).

Record	MIL	TB
As favourite	764-555	819-639
As underdog	502-594	470-504
At home	692-547	679-555
On the road	594-625	624-604

Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the MLB odds have moved →