Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction (Oct 30): Milwaukee Brewers 59%

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MLB•Sat, Oct 31 • 12:00 AM

Tampa Bay Rays

98-64

MIL

Milwaukee Brewers

103-59

Win Probability

Moneyline

40.9% win prob

Moneyline

MIL

59.1% win prob

Analysis

The simulation leans toward Milwaukee Brewers hosting Tampa Bay Rays in a matchup where the hosts hold a clear advantage. Jacob Misiorowski projects to strike out 10.0 batters, a mark that could prove decisive if Tampa Bay's lineup struggles to make consistent contact. Junior Caminero has a 26% chance to go deep, and the visitors will need that kind of power given the projected offensive environment. AccuScore's model has returned 49% on roughly 6,350 games shaped like this one—a narrow lean toward the home side where the simulation still favours it. For Tampa Bay to pull the upset, Richie Palacios would need to exceed his 48% hit probability and spark an offensive surge the numbers do not project.

Probability Explorer— drag to explore lines

Run Line (-1.5/+1.5)TB -1.5

10.5-0.75-12

TB Cover

34.9%

no odds at this line

MIL Cover

65.1%

no odds at this line

Player Props

MIL TB

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AccuScore's simulation makes Milwaukee Brewers 59% to beat Tampa Bay Rays (41%).

Projection updated Oct 25, 4:55 PM ET

Who will win Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers?

AccuScore's simulation makes Milwaukee Brewers the more likely winner at 59%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.

Will Milwaukee Brewers beat Tampa Bay Rays?

AccuScore's simulation gives Milwaukee Brewers a 59% chance of beating Tampa Bay Rays, against 41% for Tampa Bay Rays. Milwaukee Brewers are at home and favoured on these numbers.

Form, head-to-head and betting trends

How Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.

Recent form

Tampa Bay RaysLLWWL

Oct 24at Milwaukee BrewersL 4–5
Oct 23at Milwaukee BrewersL 2–3
Oct 19vs Cleveland GuardiansW 7–3
Oct 17at Cleveland GuardiansW 7–3
Oct 15at Cleveland GuardiansL 2–3

Tampa Bay Rays have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-L, most recent first).

Milwaukee BrewersWWWWW

Oct 24vs Tampa Bay RaysW 5–4
Oct 23vs Tampa Bay RaysW 3–2
Oct 15at Los Angeles DodgersW 6–4
Oct 14at Los Angeles DodgersW 6–2
Oct 12vs Los Angeles DodgersW 7–4

Milwaukee Brewers have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).

Head-to-head

The teams have met 24 times since 2011: Tampa Bay Rays 10, Milwaukee Brewers 14. The last meeting, on Oct 24, 2026, finished Tampa Bay Rays 4, Milwaukee Brewers 5.

Oct 24, 2026TB 4 – 5 MIL
Oct 23, 2026TB 2 – 3 MIL
Apr 1, 2026TB 8 – 2 MIL
Mar 31, 2026TB 6 – 2 MIL
Mar 30, 2026TB 2 – 3 MIL

Every Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers meeting →

Betting trends

Tampa Bay Rays are 819-639 as favourite and 470-504 as underdog, and 624-604 on the road (51% of 1228 games, 2010–2026).

Milwaukee Brewers are 764-555 as favourite and 502-594 as underdog, and 692-547 at home (56% of 1239 games, 2010–2026).

Record	TB	MIL
As favourite	819-639	764-555
As underdog	470-504	502-594
At home	679-555	692-547
On the road	624-604	594-625

Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the MLB odds have moved →