NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
3-0
Cleveland Cavaliers
1-1
Win Probability
The Cleveland Cavaliers host the Minnesota Timberwolves in a matchup where simulation favours the home side slightly. Donovan Mitchell has a 47% chance of exceeding 35 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Jaden McDaniels projects at 49% to surpass 21 in the same category—indicating both offences will need their primary scorers operating at peak efficiency. The game hinges on floor spacing and three-point shooting; AccuScore's model has called similar home-favoured contests at 50% accuracy across 241 graded games. For Minnesota to pull the upset, its role players around McDaniels and Rudy Gobert will need to create sustainable offence without forcing difficult shots.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H MIN ML
MIN +139
+0.3% EV
40.6% leads · push 3.5%
Pinnacle ↗
1H CLE ML
CLE -152
-1.9% EV
55.9% leads · push 3.5%
bet365 ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
MIN +1.5 -105
-3.6% EV
47.5% covers
bet365 ↗
1H Spread
CLE -1.5 -116
-1.1% EV
52.5% covers
bet365 ↗
1H Total
O 113.5 -111
+9.8% EV
62.9% over
bet365 ↗
1H Total
U 113.5 -105
-13.8% EV
37.1% under
Pinnacle ↗
| Book | Line | CLE | EV | MIN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -4 | -114 | -2.8% | -102 | -0.6% |
| Betfair ↗ | -4.5 | -120 | -5.4% | -120 | -3.0% |
| Betano ↗ | -4.5 | -105 | -2.5% | -115 | -2.0% |
| bet365 ↗ | -4 | -125 | -4.7% | -106 | -1.5% |
| novig | -4.5 | +102 | -0.8% | -106 | -0.2% |
| Book | CLE | EV | MIN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -182 | -3.8% | +146 | -0.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -171 | -2.8% | +148 | +0.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 233.5 | -112 | -4.8% | -104 | +1.2% |
| Betfair ↗ | 232.5 | -114 | -3.1% | -108 | -1.9% |
| Betano ↗ | 233.5 | -110 | -4.4% | -111 | -0.4% |
| bet365 ↗ | 233 | -111 | -3.5% | -120 | -3.1% |
| William Hill ↗ | 233.5 | -118 | -5.8% | -118 | -1.8% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Cleveland Cavaliers 60% to beat Minnesota Timberwolves (40%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Cleveland Cavaliers the more likely winner at 60%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Cleveland Cavaliers a 60% chance of beating Minnesota Timberwolves, against 40% for Minnesota Timberwolves. Cleveland Cavaliers are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Minnesota Timberwolves and Cleveland Cavaliers come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Minnesota Timberwolves have won 3 of their last 3 (W-W-W, most recent first).
Cleveland Cavaliers have won 1 of their last 2 (W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 30 times since 2010: Minnesota Timberwolves 14, Cleveland Cavaliers 16. The last meeting, on Jan 10, 2026, finished Minnesota Timberwolves 134, Cleveland Cavaliers 146.
Minnesota Timberwolves are 345-205 as favourite and 208-505 as underdog, and 254-412 on the road (38% of 666 games, 2010–2026).
Cleveland Cavaliers are 467-219 as favourite and 195-445 as underdog, and 404-296 at home (58% of 700 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | MIN | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 345-205 | 467-219 |
| As underdog | 208-505 | 195-445 |
| At home | 333-330 | 404-296 |
| On the road | 254-412 | 299-395 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →