Chicago Bulls
1-2
Boston Celtics
1-1
Win Probability
Boston Celtics host Chicago Bulls in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Jayson Tatum has a 49% chance of surpassing 35 points and rebounds, while Josh Giddey projects a 47% chance to exceed 25 points, rebounds and assists—the visitor's best path to staying competitive. The Bulls' ability to generate offensive efficiency will determine whether they can keep pace; AccuScore's model has backed the home side in games shaped like this one 80% of the time across 820 graded fixtures. For Chicago to pull the upset, its supporting cast around Giddey would need to consistently execute while Tatum falters from his typical output.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H CHI ML
CHI +359
+5.1% EV
23.4% leads · push 2.7%
Pinnacle ↗
1H BOS ML
BOS -417
-2.8% EV
73.9% leads · push 2.7%
bet365 ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
CHI +8.5 -114
-0.0% EV
53.3% covers
Pinnacle ↗
1H Spread
BOS -8.5 +100
-3.3% EV
46.7% covers
Betfair ↗
1H Total
O 113.5 -110
+11.6% EV
64.5% over
Betano ↗
1H Total
U 113.5 -108
-15.8% EV
35.5% under
Pinnacle ↗
| Book | Line | BOS | EV | CHI | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -14.5 | -102 | -3.6% | -110 | +0.7% |
| Betfair ↗ | -14.5 | -110 | -5.2% | -125 | -2.2% |
| Betano ↗ | -14.5 | -105 | -4.2% | -115 | -0.4% |
| bet365 ↗ | -14.5 | -105 | -4.2% | -116 | -0.6% |
| novig | -14.5 | +104 | -2.2% | -106 | +1.6% |
| Book | BOS | EV | CHI | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -719 | -3.0% | +573 | +8.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -704 | -2.8% | +585 | +9.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 232.5 | -110 | -0.4% | -102 | -2.5% |
| Betfair ↗ | 232.5 | -110 | -0.4% | -110 | -4.2% |
| Betano ↗ | 232.5 | -111 | -0.6% | -110 | -4.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | 231.5 | -132 | -2.3% | -101 | -4.5% |
| William Hill ↗ | 232.5 | -118 | -2.0% | -118 | -5.7% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 53.1%
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NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Boston Celtics 83% to beat Chicago Bulls (17%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Boston Celtics the more likely winner at 83%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Boston Celtics a 83% chance of beating Chicago Bulls, against 17% for Chicago Bulls. Boston Celtics are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Chicago Bulls and Boston Celtics come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Chicago Bulls have won 1 of their last 3 (L-W-L, most recent first).
Boston Celtics have won 1 of their last 2 (W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 61 times since 2010: Chicago Bulls 27, Boston Celtics 34. The last meeting, on Feb 11, 2026, finished Chicago Bulls 105, Boston Celtics 124.
Chicago Bulls are 400-202 as favourite and 230-432 as underdog, and 295-366 on the road (45% of 661 games, 2010–2026).
Boston Celtics are 663-291 as favourite and 165-262 as underdog, and 493-234 at home (68% of 727 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | CHI | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 400-202 | 663-291 |
| As underdog | 230-432 | 165-262 |
| At home | 364-300 | 493-234 |
| On the road | 295-366 | 382-336 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →