Dallas Mavericks
1-2
Miami Heat
0-3
Win Probability
The Dallas Mavericks travel to Miami Heat in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Kyrie Irving projects as a 50% chance to exceed 30 points, rebounds and assists, while P.J. Washington sits at 49% for more than 25 combined. Miami's depth poses the central problem: Bam Adebayo has a 49% chance of surpassing 33 points, rebounds and assists, and Davion Mitchell carries a 48% chance at 21 combined, spreading Dallas's defensive attention thin. AccuScore's model has converted on home-favoring matchups shaped like this at a 69% clip across 1,273 graded games. For Dallas to upset, it would need multiple secondary scorers to simultaneously beat their projections while containing Miami's complementary threats.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H DAL ML
DAL +191
+1.1% EV
34.0% leads · push 3.3%
Pinnacle ↗
1H MIA ML
MIA -227
-3.2% EV
62.7% leads · push 3.3%
Betano ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
DAL +4.5 -105
-0.5% EV
50.7% covers
bet365 ↗
1H Spread
MIA -4.5 -114
-3.7% EV
49.3% covers
Betano ↗
1H Total
O 121.5 -116
-2.2% EV
51.4% over
bet365 ↗
1H Total
U 121.5 -102
-1.9% EV
48.6% under
Pinnacle ↗
| Book | Line | MIA | EV | DAL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -8.5 | +101 | -2.4% | -114 | -0.6% |
| Betfair ↗ | -8.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -125 | -2.7% |
| Betano ↗ | -8.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -111 | -0.0% |
| bet365 ↗ | -8.5 | -105 | -3.7% | -116 | -1.0% |
| novig | -8.5 | +100 | -2.6% | -104 | +1.6% |
| Book | MIA | EV | DAL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -306 | -3.4% | +252 | +2.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -300 | -3.1% | +257 | +3.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 239.5 | -111 | +0.1% | -105 | -3.8% |
| Betfair ↗ | 240.5 | -110 | -1.9% | -110 | -2.7% |
| Betano ↗ | 239.5 | -114 | -0.5% | -108 | -4.5% |
| bet365 ↗ | 238 | -125 | +0.6% | -105 | -7.1% |
| William Hill ↗ | 239.5 | -125 | -2.6% | -110 | -4.8% |
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NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Miami Heat 70% to beat Dallas Mavericks (30%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Miami Heat the more likely winner at 70%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Miami Heat a 70% chance of beating Dallas Mavericks, against 30% for Dallas Mavericks. Miami Heat are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Dallas Mavericks have won 1 of their last 3 (L-W-L, most recent first).
Miami Heat have won 0 of their last 3 (L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 38 times since 2010: Dallas Mavericks 15, Miami Heat 23. The last meeting, on Dec 3, 2025, finished Miami Heat 108, Dallas Mavericks 118.
Dallas Mavericks are 440-217 as favourite and 224-420 as underdog, and 309-380 on the road (45% of 689 games, 2010–2026).
Miami Heat are 587-272 as favourite and 207-299 as underdog, and 469-244 at home (66% of 713 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | DAL | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 440-217 | 587-272 |
| As underdog | 224-420 | 207-299 |
| At home | 388-292 | 469-244 |
| On the road | 309-380 | 363-354 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →