Phoenix Suns
1-1
Oklahoma City Thunder
3-0
Win Probability
The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Phoenix Suns in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. Shai Gilgeous Alexander has a 48% chance of exceeding 40 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Devin Booker projects at a 49% chance of surpassing 33 in the same category—a gap that reflects where the model sees this game being decided. AccuScore's record on games shaped this way, backing the home favourite at this probability range, stands at 69% over 1,273 graded games. For Phoenix to pull the upset, the Suns' supporting cast—particularly Miles Bridges and Dillon Brooks, each at 46-47% to exceed 25 combined—would need to match Oklahoma City's depth, something the projections suggest is unlikely.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H PHO ML
PHO +234
+2.0% EV
30.2% leads · push 3.2%
Pinnacle ↗
1H OKC ML
OKC -270
-2.8% EV
66.6% leads · push 3.2%
Betano ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
| Book | Line | OKC | EV | PHO | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -10 | +101 | -4.9% | -114 | +1.9% |
| Betfair ↗ | -9.5 | -110 | -5.4% | -110 | +0.9% |
| Betano ↗ | -9.5 | -118 | -6.9% | -105 | +2.0% |
| bet365 ↗ | -10 | -106 | -6.4% | -125 | -0.2% |
| novig | -9.5 | -104 | -4.2% | +102 | +3.8% |
| Book | OKC | EV | PHO | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -400 | -3.5% | +329 | +4.9% |
| Betfair ↗ | -455 | -4.6% | +310 | +2.5% |
| Betano ↗ | -435 | -4.2% | +285 | -0.7% |
| bet365 ↗ | -435 | -4.2% | +330 | +5.0% |
| William Hill ↗ | -455 | -4.6% | +320 | +3.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 220.5 | -108 | -1.8% | -106 | -1.5% |
| Betfair ↗ | 221.5 | -110 | -4.5% | -110 | -0.1% |
| Betano ↗ | 220.5 | -115 | -3.2% | -105 | -1.3% |
| bet365 ↗ | 218.5 | -125 | -0.9% | -104 | -5.4% |
| William Hill ↗ | 220.5 | -118 | -3.7% | -118 | -3.9% |
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NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Oklahoma City Thunder 74% to beat Phoenix Suns (26%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Oklahoma City Thunder the more likely winner at 74%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Oklahoma City Thunder a 74% chance of beating Phoenix Suns, against 26% for Phoenix Suns. Oklahoma City Thunder are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Phoenix Suns and Oklahoma City Thunder come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Phoenix Suns have won 1 of their last 2 (W-L, most recent first).
Oklahoma City Thunder have won 3 of their last 3 (W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 61 times since 2010: Phoenix Suns 18, Oklahoma City Thunder 43. The last meeting, on Apr 27, 2026, finished Oklahoma City Thunder 131, Phoenix Suns 122.
Phoenix Suns are 370-194 as favourite and 217-480 as underdog, and 268-392 on the road (41% of 660 games, 2010–2026).
Oklahoma City Thunder are 681-251 as favourite and 160-271 as underdog, and 494-221 at home (69% of 715 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | PHO | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 370-194 | 681-251 |
| As underdog | 217-480 | 160-271 |
| At home | 354-314 | 494-221 |
| On the road | 268-392 | 377-331 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →