Memphis Grizzlies
3-0
Utah Jazz
1-2
Win Probability
This matchup between the Memphis Grizzlies and Utah Jazz shapes up as a coin-flip, with the Jazz favoured barely at home. Cameron Boozer projects a 47% chance of exceeding 28 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Jaren Jackson sits at exactly 50% to surpass 22—a rare toss-up that underscores how evenly matched the rosters figure to perform. The game turns on depth; Memphis has six players with at least a 48% projection to hit their bench thresholds, while Utah counters with four in that tier, suggesting the Grizzlies' supporting cast may be the deciding factor. AccuScore's model has returned 12.2% on similar home-side lean calls across 241 games, though similar games in isolation split 4-4 in the other direction. For the Grizzlies to come through as road visitors, they would need that bench production to materialise while Utah's scoring load concentrates too heavily on Lauri Markkanen and Ace Bailey.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H MEM ML
MEM -110
-4.0% EV
46.4% leads · push 3.4%
Betfair ↗
1H UT ML
UT -125
-3.1% EV
50.2% leads · push 3.4%
Betfair ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
| Book | UT | EV | MEM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair ↗ | -125 | -3.4% | +100 | -1.8% |
| bet365 ↗ | -118 | -2.2% | -103 | -2.5% |
| William Hill ↗ | -125 | -3.4% | +100 | -1.8% |
| novig | -102 | +1.3% | +100 | -1.8% |
| prophetx | -104 | +0.8% | -102 | -2.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair ↗ | 239.5 | -108 | -6.1% | -114 | +1.1% |
| bet365 ↗ | 235.5 | -125 | -1.6% | -105 | -4.9% |
| William Hill ↗ | 237.5 | -125 | -5.2% | -110 | -2.1% |
| novig | 238.5 | -102 | -2.8% | +100 | +2.3% |
| prophetx | 237 | -121 | -3.5% | +113 | +2.3% |
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NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Utah Jazz 52% to beat Memphis Grizzlies (48%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Utah Jazz the more likely winner at 52%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Utah Jazz a 52% chance of beating Memphis Grizzlies, against 48% for Memphis Grizzlies. Utah Jazz are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Memphis Grizzlies and Utah Jazz come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Memphis Grizzlies have won 3 of their last 3 (W-W-W, most recent first).
Utah Jazz have won 1 of their last 3 (L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 63 times since 2010: Memphis Grizzlies 32, Utah Jazz 31. The last meeting, on Oct 21, 2026, finished Utah Jazz 103, Memphis Grizzlies 123.
Memphis Grizzlies are 438-193 as favourite and 228-435 as underdog, and 295-382 on the road (44% of 677 games, 2010–2026).
Utah Jazz are 420-188 as favourite and 195-467 as underdog, and 386-280 at home (58% of 666 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | MEM | UT |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 438-193 | 420-188 |
| As underdog | 228-435 | 195-467 |
| At home | 407-272 | 386-280 |
| On the road | 295-382 | 260-409 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →