Golden State Warriors
0-3
Denver Nuggets
1-1
Win Probability
The Denver Nuggets host the Golden State Warriors in a matchup the simulation favours clearly toward the home side. Nikola Jokic carries a 47% chance of exceeding 52 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Stephen Curry sits at 49% to surpass 25—a gap that underscores Denver's depth advantage across its roster. The game hinges on whether Golden State can match the Nuggets' secondary scoring; Aaron Gordon has a 48% chance to exceed 26 combined, and Cameron Johnson the same at 22, while the Warriors lean heavily on role players like Brandin Podziemski at 47% to beat 23. AccuScore's model has returned minus 3.0 percent on roughly 1,230 similar home-favored matchups, though in eight other games of this statistical shape, it backed the correct side five times. Denver would need to cool from its usual level while Golden State's bench contributors all clicked simultaneously for an upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H GS ML
GS +186
+1.2% EV
34.5% leads · push 3.7%
Pinnacle ↗
1H DEN ML
DEN -213
-2.7% EV
61.8% leads · push 3.7%
Betano ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
GS +4.5 -111
-0.3% EV
52.3% covers
bet365 ↗
1H Spread
DEN -4.5 -111
-4.7% EV
47.7% covers
bet365 ↗
1H Total
O 114.5 -116
+9.6% EV
64.0% over
Pinnacle ↗
1H Total
U 114.5 -103
-14.5% EV
36.0% under
Pinnacle ↗
| Book | Line | DEN | EV | GS | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -7.5 | -104 | -3.4% | -106 | +1.0% |
| Betfair ↗ | -7.5 | -120 | -6.5% | -120 | -1.9% |
| Betano ↗ | -7.5 | -111 | -4.9% | -110 | +0.1% |
| bet365 ↗ | -8 | -120 | -7.8% | -114 | +0.9% |
| novig | -7.5 | +102 | -2.0% | -104 | +1.5% |
| Book | DEN | EV | GS | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -276 | -3.3% | +229 | +1.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -270 | -3.0% | +233 | +2.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 236.5 | -109 | -6.1% | -103 | +3.4% |
| Betfair ↗ | 237.5 | -108 | -8.1% | -114 | +3.0% |
| Betano ↗ | 236.5 | -114 | -7.0% | -108 | +2.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | 236 | -120 | -6.9% | -110 | +0.7% |
| William Hill ↗ | 236.5 | -118 | -7.7% | -118 | +0.1% |
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NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Denver Nuggets 69% to beat Golden State Warriors (31%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Denver Nuggets the more likely winner at 69%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Denver Nuggets a 69% chance of beating Golden State Warriors, against 31% for Golden State Warriors. Denver Nuggets are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Golden State Warriors have won 0 of their last 3 (L-L-L, most recent first).
Denver Nuggets have won 1 of their last 2 (W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 60 times since 2010: Golden State Warriors 29, Denver Nuggets 31. The last meeting, on Mar 29, 2026, finished Golden State Warriors 93, Denver Nuggets 116.
Golden State Warriors are 663-236 as favourite and 161-289 as underdog, and 373-336 on the road (53% of 709 games, 2010–2026).
Denver Nuggets are 547-250 as favourite and 206-320 as underdog, and 469-227 at home (67% of 696 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | GS | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 663-236 | 547-250 |
| As underdog | 161-289 | 206-320 |
| At home | 485-224 | 469-227 |
| On the road | 373-336 | 327-367 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →