Winnipeg Jets
4-4
Tampa Bay Lightning
7-3
Win Probability
The simulation favours Tampa Bay Lightning in this matchup at home against the Winnipeg Jets. Nikita Kucherov carries a 40% chance of posting multiple points, while Gabriel Vilardi has a 43% chance of recording at least one point—a narrow margin that reflects how tightly the model sees this game. The game turns on depth scoring: neither team's established stars project as strong multi-point threats. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's historical record stands at 59% across 2645 graded calls. For Winnipeg to pull the upset, its secondary contributors would need to outpace Tampa's in a low-scoring affair.
| Book | TB | EV | WIN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -225 | -4.0% | +175 | -0.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | 5.5 | -166 | -6.4% | -102 | -4.8% |
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Lightning 64% to beat Winnipeg Jets (36%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Lightning the more likely winner at 64%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Tampa Bay Lightning a 64% chance of beating Winnipeg Jets, against 36% for Winnipeg Jets. Tampa Bay Lightning are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Winnipeg Jets and Tampa Bay Lightning come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Winnipeg Jets have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Tampa Bay Lightning have won 3 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 31 times since 2011: Winnipeg Jets 17, Tampa Bay Lightning 14. The last meeting, on Mar 5, 2026, finished Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Winnipeg Jets 4.
Winnipeg Jets are 349-229 as favourite and 238-301 as underdog, and 270-300 on the road (47% of 570 games, 2011–2026).
Tampa Bay Lightning are 574-345 as favourite and 133-163 as underdog, and 406-216 at home (65% of 622 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | WIN | TB |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 349-229 | 574-345 |
| As underdog | 238-301 | 133-163 |
| At home | 329-245 | 406-216 |
| On the road | 270-300 | 317-299 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →