NHL

Montreal Canadiens vs Dallas Stars Prediction, Odds & Live Score

Thu, Oct 29, 2026, 8:00 PM ET

← Today's Edges

NHL•Fri, Oct 30 • 12:00 AMSilver Edge

MON

Montreal Canadiens

6-3

DAL

Dallas Stars

7-3

Win Probability

Moneyline

MON

+127

40.2% win prob

EV -4.4%

Polymarket

Moneyline

DAL

-145

59.8% win prob

EV +0.5%

Polymarket

Analysis

The Dallas Stars host the Montreal Canadiens in a matchup where the simulation leans clearly toward the home side. Mikko Rantanen projects at 58% to record more than 0.5 points, while Lane Hutson sits at 52%—a marginal advantage for the visitor at a position where Montreal needs production. The game turns on whether Montreal's secondary scoring can sustain itself; Cole Caufield checks in at only 42%, and Josh Anderson at 23%, suggesting the Canadiens will struggle to generate scoring depth. AccuScore's historical record on games shaped this way sits at 49% over 2,451 graded matchups, a cautionary note on backing the home side in a lean-but-not-decisive spot. For Montreal to pull the upset, at least one of its depth forwards will need to exceed expectations.

Probability Explorer— drag to explore lines

Puck Line (-1.5/+1.5)MON -1.5

60-6

MON Cover

27.7%

no odds at this line

DAL Cover

72.3%

no odds at this line

Total (Over/Under)O/U 5

0.56.2512

Over Cover

39.7%

no odds at this line

Under Cover

36.3%

no odds at this line

Push 24.0% — stake returned if it lands exactly on the total

Player Props

DAL MON

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Odds Comparison

Moneyline

Book	DAL	EV	MON	EV
Kalshi ↗	-161	-1.5%	+118	-6.2%
Polymarket ↗	-145	+0.5%	+127	-4.4%

Where to Bet

silver

DAL ML+0.5% EV

Win probability: 59.8%

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AccuScore's simulation makes Dallas Stars 60% to beat Montreal Canadiens (40%).

Projection updated Oct 26, 7:25 PM ET

Who will win Montreal Canadiens vs Dallas Stars?

AccuScore's simulation makes Dallas Stars the more likely winner at 60%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.

Will Dallas Stars beat Montreal Canadiens?

AccuScore's simulation gives Dallas Stars a 60% chance of beating Montreal Canadiens, against 40% for Montreal Canadiens. Dallas Stars are at home and favoured on these numbers.

Form, head-to-head and betting trends

How Montreal Canadiens and Dallas Stars come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.

Recent form

Montreal CanadiensWWLWL

Oct 25at Winnipeg JetsW 2–1
Oct 23at Chicago BlackhawksW 4–1
Oct 20vs San Jose SharksL 3–4
Oct 17vs Buffalo SabresW 4–3
Oct 14at Washington CapitalsL 4–5

Montreal Canadiens have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-L, most recent first).

Dallas StarsWWWWW

Oct 25vs New York IslandersW 6–3
Oct 22vs Winnipeg JetsW 3–2
Oct 20vs Boston BruinsW 3–2
Oct 17at Chicago BlackhawksW 4–0
Oct 14at Colorado AvalancheW 3–2

Dallas Stars have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).

Head-to-head

The teams have met 23 times since 2012: Montreal Canadiens 10, Dallas Stars 13. The last meeting, on Jan 4, 2026, finished Montreal Canadiens 4, Dallas Stars 3.

Jan 4, 2026MON 4 – 3 DAL
Nov 13, 2025DAL 7 – 0 MON
Jan 16, 2025MON 3 – 1 DAL
Jan 11, 2025DAL 2 – 1 MON
Feb 10, 2024DAL 3 – 2 MON

Every Montreal Canadiens vs Dallas Stars meeting →

Betting trends

Montreal Canadiens are 242-196 as favourite and 279-419 as underdog, and 251-327 on the road (43% of 578 games, 2011–2026).

Dallas Stars are 423-287 as favourite and 206-255 as underdog, and 345-255 at home (57% of 600 games, 2011–2026).

Record	MON	DAL
As favourite	242-196	423-287
As underdog	279-419	206-255
At home	281-298	345-255
On the road	251-327	303-298

Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →