NHL
Buffalo Sabres
4-4
Anaheim Ducks
5-6
Win Probability
The Buffalo Sabres visit the Anaheim Ducks in a matchup where the simulation favours the home side slightly. Leo Carlsson carries the strongest individual projection at 55% to record more than 0.5 points, while Tage Thompson sits at 47%—a gap that reflects where this game turns. Rasmus Dahlin projects at 49%, keeping Buffalo within reach despite the lean toward Anaheim. AccuScore's record on games shaped like this one runs at 49% across 2,451 graded matchups, a cautionary baseline. For Buffalo to prevail, it would need to overcome both the home-ice advantage baked into the Ducks' projection and a Carlsson performance that exceeds his baseline.
| Book | ANA | EV | BUF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -103 | +3.6% | -126 | -9.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -105 | +3.1% | -109 | -6.3% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Anaheim Ducks 54% to beat Buffalo Sabres (46%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Anaheim Ducks the more likely winner at 54%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Anaheim Ducks a 54% chance of beating Buffalo Sabres, against 46% for Buffalo Sabres. Anaheim Ducks are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Buffalo Sabres and Anaheim Ducks come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Buffalo Sabres have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
Anaheim Ducks have won 1 of their last 5 (W-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 24 times since 2011: Buffalo Sabres 13, Anaheim Ducks 11. The last meeting, on Mar 22, 2026, finished Buffalo Sabres 5, Anaheim Ducks 6.
Buffalo Sabres are 148-115 as favourite and 302-504 as underdog, and 212-334 on the road (39% of 546 games, 2011–2026).
Anaheim Ducks are 244-168 as favourite and 271-437 as underdog, and 288-284 at home (50% of 572 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | BUF | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 148-115 | 244-168 |
| As underdog | 302-504 | 271-437 |
| At home | 249-299 | 288-284 |
| On the road | 212-334 | 234-333 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →