Vancouver Canucks
2-10
San Jose Sharks
6-5
Win Probability
This simulation treats the matchup between the Vancouver Canucks and San Jose Sharks as essentially a coin-flip, with the hosts holding the barest of advantages. Macklin Celebrini projects as the game's most likely difference-maker, carrying a 67% chance of posting more than half a point, while Linus Karlsson sits at just 36%. The deciding factor appears to be offensive execution: AccuScore's model projects a near-even final score, yet only gives a 44% probability the combined total exceeds the market line. On games shaped like this one—a near-even home lean—the simulation has historically won 49% of the time across 2,451 graded fixtures. For Vancouver to pull off the road win, it would need to overcome not just the home-ice advantage but also the Sharks' scoring depth, where Ivar Stenberg and Will Smith each carry 40%-plus chances of breaking through.
| Book | SAN | EV | VAN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -215 | -12.4% | +154 | +11.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | 6.5 | -236 | -18.5% | -125 | +0.1% |
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NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes San Jose Sharks 51% to beat Vancouver Canucks (49%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes San Jose Sharks the more likely winner at 51%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives San Jose Sharks a 51% chance of beating Vancouver Canucks, against 49% for Vancouver Canucks. San Jose Sharks are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Vancouver Canucks and San Jose Sharks come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Vancouver Canucks have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
San Jose Sharks have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 53 times since 2011: Vancouver Canucks 28, San Jose Sharks 25. The last meeting, on Apr 11, 2026, finished Vancouver Canucks 4, San Jose Sharks 3.
Vancouver Canucks are 224-185 as favourite and 283-396 as underdog, and 252-309 on the road (45% of 561 games, 2011–2026).
San Jose Sharks are 276-225 as favourite and 228-400 as underdog, and 274-297 at home (48% of 571 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | VAN | SAN |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 224-185 | 276-225 |
| As underdog | 283-396 | 228-400 |
| At home | 271-290 | 274-297 |
| On the road | 252-309 | 237-338 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →