NBA
Washington Wizards
2-2
Cleveland Cavaliers
2-1
Win Probability
The Cleveland Cavaliers host the Washington Wizards in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. Donovan Mitchell has a 48% chance of exceeding 34 points, rebounds and assists, while Anthony Davis reaches that bar at 47%—both stars will need to impose themselves for their teams to control the game's flow. The Cavaliers' depth across James Harden, Evan Mobley and beyond gives them multiple scoring avenues; Washington will need its complementary scorers like Trae Young and Alex Sarr to step up alongside Davis. Over 1273 games shaped like this one, AccuScore has backed the home side at 69%. For the Wizards to pull the upset, they would need to silence Cleveland's role players and force Mitchell into an off night.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | CLE | EV | WAS | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -430 | -3.1% | +331 | +1.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -396 | -2.3% | +338 | +2.3% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Cleveland Cavaliers 76% to beat Washington Wizards (24%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Cleveland Cavaliers the more likely winner at 76%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Cleveland Cavaliers a 76% chance of beating Washington Wizards, against 24% for Washington Wizards. Cleveland Cavaliers are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Washington Wizards and Cleveland Cavaliers come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Washington Wizards have won 2 of their last 4 (L-W-L-W, most recent first).
Cleveland Cavaliers have won 2 of their last 3 (W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 57 times since 2010: Washington Wizards 19, Cleveland Cavaliers 38. The last meeting, on Apr 12, 2026, finished Washington Wizards 117, Cleveland Cavaliers 130.
Washington Wizards are 259-165 as favourite and 238-597 as underdog, and 211-451 on the road (32% of 662 games, 2010–2026).
Cleveland Cavaliers are 468-219 as favourite and 195-445 as underdog, and 405-296 at home (58% of 701 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | WAS | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 259-165 | 468-219 |
| As underdog | 238-597 | 195-445 |
| At home | 317-345 | 405-296 |
| On the road | 211-451 | 299-395 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →